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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 24, 2013
Updated: Thu Jan 24 09:44:02 UTC 2013
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 24, 2013
D4Sun, Jan 27, 2013 - Mon, Jan 28, 2013 D7Wed, Jan 30, 2013 - Thu, Jan 31, 2013
D5Mon, Jan 28, 2013 - Tue, Jan 29, 2013 D8Thu, Jan 31, 2013 - Fri, Feb 01, 2013
D6Tue, Jan 29, 2013 - Wed, Jan 30, 2013 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 240942
   SPC AC 240942
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 AM CST THU JAN 24 2013
   
   VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AROUND TUE/D6 AND POSSIBLY INTO WED/D7.
   
   INSPECTION OF THE ECMWF...GFS...CMC...UKMET AND VARIOUS MREF MEMBERS
   REVEALS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH ABOUT
   108 HOURS OR VALID MON/D5 AT 12Z. ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES EXIST FURTHER
   OUT...THEY ARE MOSTLY IN RELATION TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
   LIKELY SEVERE THREAT.
   
   A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
   MID MS VALLEY ON SUN/D4...WITH A SUBTLE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OH/TN
   VALLEYS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SELY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF
   MEXICO AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WHICH SHOULD BE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
   MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON/D5. AS SUCH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS FAR
   N AS DALLAS.
   
   SINCE THE QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT APPEAR
   TO BE IN QUESTION...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE TIMING OF THE WRN TROUGH.
   VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS SHOW A LARGE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
   PLAINS AROUND TUE/D6 AND WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH D8.
   
   MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTING A LEADING SHORTWAVE
   MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY BY TUE
   AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE MORE THAN THE
   OPERATIONAL GFS...BUT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CMC AND A FEW MREF
   MEMBERS. IN THIS SCENARIO...A STRONGER SURFACE LOW FORMS FROM IA
   INTO WI...WHICH WOULD EXPAND THE SEVERE THREAT FARTHER NWD ACROSS
   IL. EVEN IF THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SITUATION DEVELOPS...SEVERE WOULD
   STILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND NERN TX WHERE LARGER MOISTURE
   AND INSTABILITY WOULD BE PRESENT ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR. HAVE
   MAINTAINED PREVIOUS AREA AND EXPANDED NWD AND EWD SLIGHTLY FOR
   TUE/D6.
   
   FOR WED/D7...WHILE THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER LAGGING THE MAIN
   TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...IT DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
   SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO EJECT EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOW MS
   VALLEY ON WED/D7...THEN CONTINUING TOWARD THE E COAST ON D8. THE
   MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FOR A MORE MARGINAL
   SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING INTO WED/D7 WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD
   FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN STATES. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY FOR D7
   AND D8 IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/24/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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