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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 25, 2013
Updated: Fri Jan 25 09:21:02 UTC 2013
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 25, 2013
D4Mon, Jan 28, 2013 - Tue, Jan 29, 2013 D7Thu, Jan 31, 2013 - Fri, Feb 01, 2013
D5Tue, Jan 29, 2013 - Wed, Jan 30, 2013 D8Fri, Feb 01, 2013 - Sat, Feb 02, 2013
D6Wed, Jan 30, 2013 - Thu, Jan 31, 2013 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 250920
   SPC AC 250920
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2013
   
   VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE GFS/EC/UK/CMC GLOBAL MODELS IN
   THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE SCALE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN
   U.S. THROUGH D4/MON. HOWEVER...IT IS IMMEDIATELY THEREAFTER AND
   BEYOND WHEN SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES APPEAR AND PERSIST AMONGST THE
   MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...THUS INTRODUCING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
   THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
   
   THE ECMWF EXHIBITS THE GREATEST DEPARTURE FROM PRIOR RUNS AND IS AN
   OUTLIER IN DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE BASE OF THE POSITIVE
   TILT TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND BAJA THROUGH D5/TUE. THE
   GFS...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND GFS
   ENSEMBLE...MAINTAIN A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND PHASED DEEP UPPER TROUGH
   AND STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS MID/LOWER
   MS VALLEY THROUGH D6/WED. BUT...EVEN AMONGST THE GFS ENSEMBLE
   MEMBERS...UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH IS HIGH WITH
   THE STANDARD DEVIATION IN 500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.
   EXCEEDING 90M AT THE 120H FORECAST VALID D5/TUE EVENING.
   
   DESPITE THE SPREAD IN GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THERE REMAINS A LOW
   PROBABILITY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM ARKLATEX TO MS DELTA REGIONS
   AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO AN
   AXIS OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THROUGH D5/TUE EVENING. WITH LATEST
   MODEL SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EXHIBITING SUCH DIVERGENT
   OUTCOMES HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY. THUS...PREDICTABILITY
   APPEARS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE WEATHER AREA AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 01/25/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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