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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 27, 2013
Updated: Sun Jan 27 09:31:03 UTC 2013
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 27, 2013
D4Wed, Jan 30, 2013 - Thu, Jan 31, 2013 D7Sat, Feb 02, 2013 - Sun, Feb 03, 2013
D5Thu, Jan 31, 2013 - Fri, Feb 01, 2013 D8Sun, Feb 03, 2013 - Mon, Feb 04, 2013
D6Fri, Feb 01, 2013 - Sat, Feb 02, 2013 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 270930
   SPC AC 270930
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013
   
   VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE
   THAT A POWERFUL AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE RAPID
   PROGRESS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH LATE D4/WEDNESDAY. A MID
   LEVEL WIND MAX IN EXCESS OF 100KT IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
   BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COINCIDENT
   WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THESE AREAS. MODELS ALSO
   SUGGEST THAT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
   IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A PLUME
   OF AT LEAST 1.5 INCH PW VALUES EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS PHL AREA BY
   WEDNESDAY EVENING. QPF AND VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS FROM LATEST EC AND
   GFS MODELS SUGGEST A CONTINUATION AND/OR RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION
   ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE FRONT AMIDST INTENSE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR.
   WHILE CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE RISK AREA WILL REMAIN LOW...EXPECT
   BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/MOISTENING TO BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
   SUPPORT THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGH MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE
   WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE
   CONVECTIVE LINE.
   
   THE STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF ALL BUT FAR SRN FL BY
   D5/THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
   SHUT DOWN FURTHER PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AT LEAST
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 01/27/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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