|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 27, 2013|
|Updated: Sun Jan 27 09:31:03 UTC 2013|
|D4||Wed, Jan 30, 2013 - Thu, Jan 31, 2013
||D7||Sat, Feb 02, 2013 - Sun, Feb 03, 2013
|D5||Thu, Jan 31, 2013 - Fri, Feb 01, 2013
||D8||Sun, Feb 03, 2013 - Mon, Feb 04, 2013
|D6||Fri, Feb 01, 2013 - Sat, Feb 02, 2013
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 270930
SPC AC 270930
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE
THAT A POWERFUL AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE RAPID
PROGRESS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH LATE D4/WEDNESDAY. A MID
LEVEL WIND MAX IN EXCESS OF 100KT IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COINCIDENT
WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THESE AREAS. MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST THAT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A PLUME
OF AT LEAST 1.5 INCH PW VALUES EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS PHL AREA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. QPF AND VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS FROM LATEST EC AND
GFS MODELS SUGGEST A CONTINUATION AND/OR RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION
ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE FRONT AMIDST INTENSE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR.
WHILE CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE RISK AREA WILL REMAIN LOW...EXPECT
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/MOISTENING TO BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGH MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE
THE STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF ALL BUT FAR SRN FL BY
D5/THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
SHUT DOWN FURTHER PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
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