Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 22, 2013
Updated: Mon Apr 22 08:27:02 UTC 2013
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 22, 2013
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, Apr 25, 2013 - Fri, Apr 26, 2013 D7Sun, Apr 28, 2013 - Mon, Apr 29, 2013
D5Fri, Apr 26, 2013 - Sat, Apr 27, 2013 D8Mon, Apr 29, 2013 - Tue, Apr 30, 2013
D6Sat, Apr 27, 2013 - Sun, Apr 28, 2013 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 220826
   SPC AC 220826
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0326 AM CDT MON APR 22 2013
   
   VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   AMPLIFIED/BROADLY CYCLONIC LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY/MID WEEK
   WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SPLIT/ZONAL THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE
   WEEK. INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE ON A SOUTHERN STREAM CUT-OFF LOW
   EMANATING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BAJA VICINITY AND ITS
   ADVANCEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND DAYS 4-5
   THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AN EXTENSIVE FRONTAL PENETRATION ACROSS THE GULF OF
   MEXICO DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY MID-WEEK...AND THUS MOISTURE SHOULD
   STEADILY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
   DAYS 5-6. OTHERWISE..OVERALL PREDICTABILITY CONSIDERABLY DECREASES
   BY THE WEEKEND /DAYS 6-7/ WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED SPLIT/ZONAL
   REGIME.
   
   ON DAY 4/THURSDAY...LITTLE OR NO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH THE ADVANCING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND A
   WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME COULD TO INCREASING TSTMS /SOME HAIL
   MIGHT BE POSSIBLE/ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
   NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. 
   
   DAY 5/FRIDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
   SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN TANDEM WITH THE EASTWARD-MOVING SOUTHERN
   STREAM SYSTEM...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS MAY OCCUR IN AREAS SUCH
   AS OK/NORTH TX TO THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...A 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT
   SEVERE RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT COULD
   DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND TN
   VALLEY INTO DAY 6/SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH PREDICTABILITY BEGINS TO
   MARKEDLY INCREASE BY THIS TIME FRAME.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/22/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 22, 2013
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities