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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 13, 2013
Updated: Mon May 13 08:46:04 UTC 2013
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 13, 2013
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D6 132,717 6,531,195 Oklahoma City, OK...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...
D4Thu, May 16, 2013 - Fri, May 17, 2013 D7Sun, May 19, 2013 - Mon, May 20, 2013
D5Fri, May 17, 2013 - Sat, May 18, 2013 D8Mon, May 20, 2013 - Tue, May 21, 2013
D6Sat, May 18, 2013 - Sun, May 19, 2013 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 130844
   SPC AC 130844
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013
   
   VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PORTION OF THE U.S. FOR LATE THIS WEEK /FRI. THROUGH SUN. MAY
   17-19/...AS A WRN U.S. TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE PLAINS.
   
   THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE EJECTION OF
   THIS FEATURE...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS GRADUALLY
   INCREASING WITH TIME.  STILL...A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR CENTRAL U.S.
   SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN HINTED AT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH CURRENT
   INDICATIONS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT MAY EXIST BEGINNING DAY 6 /SAT.
   5-18/.  WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAY 5/FRIDAY --
   PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS VICINITY...THE SLOWER ECMWF
   MAINTAINS RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS DAY 5.  THUS...FOCUS THIS
   FORECAST WILL BE ON DAY 6...WITH THE ZONE OF OVERLAP OF THE TWO
   MODEL SOLUTIONS EXISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY.  WITH
   STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND SHEAR LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG
   WITH SOME TORNADO RISK.
   
   ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY PERSIST -- THOUGH FARTHER E
   -- FOR DAY 7/SUNDAY...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
   INCREASING AND WITH LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DAY 6
   INFLUENCING DAY 7 CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...WILL REFRAIN ATTM FROM ANY
   AREAL ISSUANCE BEYOND DAY 6.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/13/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: May 13, 2013
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