Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 1, 2013
Updated: Sat Jun 1 09:01:03 UTC 2013
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Tue, Jun 04, 2013 - Wed, Jun 05, 2013
Fri, Jun 07, 2013 - Sat, Jun 08, 2013
Wed, Jun 05, 2013 - Thu, Jun 06, 2013
Sat, Jun 08, 2013 - Sun, Jun 09, 2013
Thu, Jun 06, 2013 - Fri, Jun 07, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 010900
SPC AC 010900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
THE MAIN BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES WILL BE RELEGATED TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS INTO CANADA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
A DEGREE OF PATTERN AMPLIFICATION MID-WEEK AND BEYOND WITH BROAD
LONGWAVE CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
DAY 4/TUESDAY...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS ARE PROBABLE
WITHIN A NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PERHAPS ALSO
ALONG A SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE /ALBEIT BENEATH WEAKER
WESTERLIES/ POTENTIALLY INCLUDING NORTHWEST TX AND FAR WESTERN OK.
BY DAY 5/WEDNESDAY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK MAY EXTEND
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/OZARKS...WITH UPSLOPE AIDED STRONG STORMS ALSO PROBABLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST EACH OF THESE DAYS...30 PERCENT
EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR WARRANTED.
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