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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 1, 2013
Updated: Sat Jun 1 09:01:03 UTC 2013
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jun 1, 2013
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Tue, Jun 04, 2013 - Wed, Jun 05, 2013 D7Fri, Jun 07, 2013 - Sat, Jun 08, 2013
D5Wed, Jun 05, 2013 - Thu, Jun 06, 2013 D8Sat, Jun 08, 2013 - Sun, Jun 09, 2013
D6Thu, Jun 06, 2013 - Fri, Jun 07, 2013 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 010900
   SPC AC 010900

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 AM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

   VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE MAIN BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES WILL BE RELEGATED TO
   THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS INTO CANADA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
   A DEGREE OF PATTERN AMPLIFICATION MID-WEEK AND BEYOND WITH BROAD
   LONGWAVE CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
   CONUS.

   DAY 4/TUESDAY...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL CONUS AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS ARE PROBABLE
   WITHIN A NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY
   SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PERHAPS ALSO
   ALONG A SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE /ALBEIT BENEATH WEAKER
   WESTERLIES/ POTENTIALLY INCLUDING NORTHWEST TX AND FAR WESTERN OK.

   BY DAY 5/WEDNESDAY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK MAY EXTEND
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS/OZARKS...WITH UPSLOPE AIDED STRONG STORMS ALSO PROBABLE
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
   POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST EACH OF THESE DAYS...30 PERCENT
   EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR WARRANTED.

   ..GUYER.. 06/01/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: June 02, 2013
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