Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 7, 2014
Updated: Fri Feb 7 09:29:03 UTC 2014
Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Feb 10, 2014 - Tue, Feb 11, 2014
D7
Thu, Feb 13, 2014 - Fri, Feb 14, 2014
D5
Tue, Feb 11, 2014 - Wed, Feb 12, 2014
D8
Fri, Feb 14, 2014 - Sat, Feb 15, 2014
D6
Wed, Feb 12, 2014 - Thu, Feb 13, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070928
SPC AC 070928
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CST FRI FEB 07 2014
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE FEATURE
IN PARTICULAR IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR
MOISTURE TO ADVANCE INTO SRN LA/MS MONDAY BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED INTO
THE NRN GULF BASIN. WEAK BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND
AHEAD OF POLAR FRONT BUT THE PROSPECT FOR ROBUST CONVECTION CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 02/07/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT