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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 20, 2014
Updated: Thu Mar 20 08:02:04 UTC 2014
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 20, 2014
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Mar 23, 2014 - Mon, Mar 24, 2014 D7Wed, Mar 26, 2014 - Thu, Mar 27, 2014
D5Mon, Mar 24, 2014 - Tue, Mar 25, 2014 D8Thu, Mar 27, 2014 - Fri, Mar 28, 2014
D6Tue, Mar 25, 2014 - Wed, Mar 26, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 200801
   SPC AC 200801

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0301 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

   VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVE THIS FEATURE
   INTO THE NERN STATES ON SUNDAY/DAY 4. AT THE SFC...THE MODELS MOVE A
   COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A LARGE SFC
   HIGH SETTLING IN ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. SFC HIGH
   PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CONUS ON MONDAY/DAY 5 AS
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE ERN GULF COAST STATES
   MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
   MONDAY NIGHT WHERE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON
   TUESDAY/DAY 6...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND
   MOVES INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS A RESULT...NLY FLOW IS FORECAST
   TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SERN STATES KEEPING A RELATIVELY
   DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.

   ..BROYLES.. 03/20/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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