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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 24, 2014
Updated: Mon Mar 24 09:01:03 UTC 2014
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 24, 2014
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, Mar 27, 2014 - Fri, Mar 28, 2014 D7Sun, Mar 30, 2014 - Mon, Mar 31, 2014
D5Fri, Mar 28, 2014 - Sat, Mar 29, 2014 D8Mon, Mar 31, 2014 - Tue, Apr 01, 2014
D6Sat, Mar 29, 2014 - Sun, Mar 30, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 240900
   SPC AC 240900

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014

   VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM OFFER MUCH IN THE WAY
   OF GREATER CERTAINTY CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD.  CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING
   DEVELOPMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN AN
   INCREASINGLY ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE REGIME...AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS
   AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK. 
   SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS DOES APPEAR PROBABLE TO THE LEE OF
   THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE IT TRACKS EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
   BY THE WEEKEND.  WHILE A SLOWER AND STRONGER DEVELOPMENT THAN THAT
   CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE GFS/NCEP MREF CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST
   PROBABLE...IT STILL SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT THE EASTWARD AND
   NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS...AWAY FROM THE GULF
   OF MEXICO...WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEASONABLY
   MOIST RETURN FLOW.  AND THE MODEST NATURE OF THE RETURN FLOW
   PROBABLY WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  AT
   LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
   CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE
   VALLEY REGION...PERHAPS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ...THURSDAY AND
   FRIDAY.  BUT CERTAINTY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE
   A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA.

   ..KERR.. 03/24/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: March 24, 2014
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