Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 4, 2014
Updated: Fri Apr 4 07:57:04 UTC 2014
Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Apr 07, 2014 - Tue, Apr 08, 2014
D7
Thu, Apr 10, 2014 - Fri, Apr 11, 2014
D5
Tue, Apr 08, 2014 - Wed, Apr 09, 2014
D8
Fri, Apr 11, 2014 - Sat, Apr 12, 2014
D6
Wed, Apr 09, 2014 - Thu, Apr 10, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 040756
SPC AC 040756
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2014
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MONDAY D4: VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
LARGE SCALE FEATURES ON MON/D4 DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY MON MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM WRN TN INTO
OH BY 00Z. WHILE THE WARM SECTOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
INTO MS AND AL WILL BE COMPRISED OF MID 60S F DEWPOINTS...A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INTO NRN GA INITIALLY WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR. WITH A BROAD BELT OF SWLY 850 MB FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION INTO THAT AREA...SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FROM NRN GA INTO NC. THEREFORE...THE
INSTABILITY EVOLUTION DURING THE DAY IS QUESTIONABLE. IN
ADDITION...THE STRONGEST LIFT WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO
DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY FARTHER S.
THEREFORE...THE MINIMUM REQUIRED 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY IS NOT
CURRENTLY MET ALTHOUGH AN EVENTUAL 15 PERCENT SLIGHT RISK APPEARS
PROBABLE.
BEYOND THE D4 PERIOD: SUBSTANTIAL OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS WILL SHUNT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER FROM LAND AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WRN ATLANTIC. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO RESET
MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES AND BY D8 OR SO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD
BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS BUT POTENTIAL IS NOT
SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME AND PREDICTABILITY LOW.
..JEWELL.. 04/04/2014
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