Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 2, 2014
Updated: Mon Jun 2 09:01:03 UTC 2014
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jun 2, 2014
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, Jun 05, 2014 - Fri, Jun 06, 2014 D7Sun, Jun 08, 2014 - Mon, Jun 09, 2014
D5Fri, Jun 06, 2014 - Sat, Jun 07, 2014 D8Mon, Jun 09, 2014 - Tue, Jun 10, 2014
D6Sat, Jun 07, 2014 - Sun, Jun 08, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 020900
   SPC AC 020900

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2014

   VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
   PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 4-8 PERIOD...BUT SOLUTIONS BECOME
   INCREASINGLY DISPERSIVE BY DAYS 6-7. SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
   DAYS 4-6 IN VICINITY MEANDERING BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD PERSIST FROM
   THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC. SEVERE
   STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY /DAY 4/ FROM A PORTION OF SRN VA
   SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND FARTHER WEST INTO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY
   AND CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AREA IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN
   LIKELIHOOD OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE
   EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...WILL MAINTAIN LOW PREDICTABILITY
   FOR NOW BUT A SLIGHT RISK WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED FOR
   PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS IN THE DAY 3 UPDATE.

   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM PORTIONS OF KS AND
   OK INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION DAYS 5-6. WEAK IMPULSES WILL
   ADVANCE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AND INTERACT WITH THE
   FRONT WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
   UNSTABLE WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ONCE CONSISTENCY
   AMONG THE MODELS IS ASCERTAINED...THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
   INCLUDED IN A RISK AREA IN LATER UPDATES.

   ..DIAL.. 06/02/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 02, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities