Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 5, 2014
Updated: Sat Jul 5 09:01:04 UTC 2014
Severe Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Jul 08, 2014 - Wed, Jul 09, 2014
D7
Fri, Jul 11, 2014 - Sat, Jul 12, 2014
D5
Wed, Jul 09, 2014 - Thu, Jul 10, 2014
D8
Sat, Jul 12, 2014 - Sun, Jul 13, 2014
D6
Thu, Jul 10, 2014 - Fri, Jul 11, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050900
SPC AC 050900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z/JUL5-BASED DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASINGLY PREVALENT CYCLONIC
WESTERLIES COINCIDENT WITH A SOUTHWARD-SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING A PROBABLE SEVERE RISK INCLUDING SEVERE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. SUCH A SEVERE RISK /PROBABLE CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT/ INCLUDES THE OH VALLEY ON DAY 4/TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN
MESOSCALE/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DETAILS PRECLUDE A 30 PERCENT SEVERE
RISK DELINEATION AT THIS TIME. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD...A SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK MAY EXIST ON DAY 5/WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
..GUYER.. 07/05/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT