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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 6, 2017
Updated: Wed Sep 6 08:33:03 UTC 2017
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 6, 2017
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 6, 2017
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 6, 2017
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 6, 2017
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 6, 2017
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 6, 2017
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sat, Sep 09, 2017 - Sun, Sep 10, 2017 D7Tue, Sep 12, 2017 - Wed, Sep 13, 2017
D5Sun, Sep 10, 2017 - Mon, Sep 11, 2017 D8Wed, Sep 13, 2017 - Thu, Sep 14, 2017
D6Mon, Sep 11, 2017 - Tue, Sep 12, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 060831
   SPC AC 060831

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0331 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017

   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Primary feature of interest during the extended period is Hurricane
   Irma. Guidance continues to indicate run-to-run and model-to-model
   variability, particularly at longer forecast ranges (i.e. days 4 to
   7). This forecast uncertainty combined with typical uncertainties
   regarding tropical cyclone tornado environments results in low
   predictability.

   Upper ridging will likely be in place across the central CONUS on
   D4/Saturday with some westerly drift possible on D5/Sunday. This
   ridge is not expected to be overly strong but it still results in a
   general blocking pattern and northward displacement of the stronger
   westerlies. As a result, the CONUS will remain void of any strong
   shortwave troughs through at least the beginning of next week.

   ..Mosier.. 09/06/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: September 06, 2017
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