Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 31, 2017
Updated: Tue Oct 31 08:29:03 UTC 2017
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 31, 2017
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 31, 2017
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 31, 2017
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 31, 2017
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 31, 2017
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 31, 2017
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Fri, Nov 03, 2017 - Sat, Nov 04, 2017 D7Mon, Nov 06, 2017 - Tue, Nov 07, 2017
D5Sat, Nov 04, 2017 - Sun, Nov 05, 2017 D8Tue, Nov 07, 2017 - Wed, Nov 08, 2017
D6Sun, Nov 05, 2017 - Mon, Nov 06, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 310827
   SPC AC 310827

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0327 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017

   Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A moist air mass will generally reside from TX into the mid MS and
   OH Valleys through the period, as southwesterly flow aloft increases
   across the central and western states. On Sun/D6 and Mon/D7, height
   falls and southwesterly flow aloft will increase across the Plains,
   MS Valley and Great Lakes, with a cold front oriented parallel to
   the upper flow helping to focus storms. Both predictability and
   potential are low for this particular setup given marginal
   instability, but at least a low-end severe threat is likely to
   materialize roughly from Lower Michigan into Missouri in the D6-D7
   time frame should ECMWF model trends hold.

   ..Jewell.. 10/31/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: October 31, 2017
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities