Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 3, 2017
Updated: Fri Nov 3 08:48:02 UTC 2017
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Nov 06, 2017 - Tue, Nov 07, 2017
D7
Thu, Nov 09, 2017 - Fri, Nov 10, 2017
D5
Tue, Nov 07, 2017 - Wed, Nov 08, 2017
D8
Fri, Nov 10, 2017 - Sat, Nov 11, 2017
D6
Wed, Nov 08, 2017 - Thu, Nov 09, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030846
SPC AC 030846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2017
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A low-end/marginal severe threat may occur on Day 4/Monday across
parts of the TN Valley/Mid-South along a slowly southward-moving
cold front. This region should be on the southern periphery of
strong westerly mid/upper-level flow. With some mid-level shear and
weak instability forecast, a couple of organized updrafts may occur
with thunderstorms forming along the front Monday afternoon. Still,
the overall severe potential appears too marginal to justify 15%
probabilities at this time. Elsewhere, a cold front will continue
moving eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Day
4/Monday, but with minimal instability forecast across these regions
the severe threat should be low.
A progressive upper pattern will continue across the CONUS from Day
5/Tuesday through the end of the forecast period. Deterministic
model solutions diverge quickly in the depiction of synoptic-scale
features at mid and upper levels in this time frame. Regardless, the
potential for substantial inland destabilization and a corresponding
severe threat across any portion of the CONUS appears low.
..Gleason.. 11/03/2017
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