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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 4, 2017
Updated: Sat Nov 4 08:57:03 UTC 2017
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 4, 2017
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 4, 2017
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 4, 2017
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 4, 2017
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 4, 2017
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 4, 2017
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Tue, Nov 07, 2017 - Wed, Nov 08, 2017 D7Fri, Nov 10, 2017 - Sat, Nov 11, 2017
D5Wed, Nov 08, 2017 - Thu, Nov 09, 2017 D8Sat, Nov 11, 2017 - Sun, Nov 12, 2017
D6Thu, Nov 09, 2017 - Fri, Nov 10, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 040855
   SPC AC 040855

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2017

   Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A progressive upper pattern should occur through much of next week,
   with multiple shortwave troughs moving eastward across the CONUS. On
   Day 4/Tuesday, a surface cold front should be located over parts of
   the Southeast. This front is expected to make some southward
   progress as a positively tilted upper trough moves from the Plains
   to the Southeast through Day 5/Wednesday. Some overlap of weak
   instability and moderate/strong mid-level shear may occur along the
   front Tuesday afternoon. But, shear vectors oriented generally
   parallel to the front and the likelihood for post-frontal convection
   suggest severe potential is too low to justify any probabilities for
   severe thunderstorms.

   The cold front should continue moving southward across the FL
   Peninsula and off the Gulf Coast from Day 6/Thursday into Day
   7/Friday, with very low potential for substantial inland
   destabilization and resultant severe risk. Around Day 8/Saturday,
   deterministic model guidance suggests an upper trough may move from
   the Rockies to the Plains. Ahead of this feature, low-level moisture
   return across the southern Plains appears too meager to support
   organized severe thunderstorms.

   ..Gleason.. 11/04/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: November 04, 2017
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