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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 5, 2017
Updated: Sun Nov 5 09:21:03 UTC 2017
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 5, 2017
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 5, 2017
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 5, 2017
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 5, 2017
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 5, 2017
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 5, 2017
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Wed, Nov 08, 2017 - Thu, Nov 09, 2017 D7Sat, Nov 11, 2017 - Sun, Nov 12, 2017
D5Thu, Nov 09, 2017 - Fri, Nov 10, 2017 D8Sun, Nov 12, 2017 - Mon, Nov 13, 2017
D6Fri, Nov 10, 2017 - Sat, Nov 11, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 050919
   SPC AC 050919

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0319 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2017

   Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range models are in fairly good agreement to start the Day
   4-8 period, but this agreement begins to deteriorate during the Day
   5 (Thursday 11-9) time frame.  With that said however, the overall
   pattern appears likely to remain prohibitive of appreciable severe
   risk from Day 6 onward.

   At this time, the only hint of any severe weather potential appears
   late Day 4 and into Day 5 over the southeastern states.  Both the
   GFS and ECMWF suggest that a compact/fast-moving mid-level
   short-wave trough will advance quickly eastward out of the southern
   Plains and then across the Southeast.  With a remnant surface front
   forecast to be lingering west-to-east along the Gulf Coast region,
   weak wave development on the front is depicted by the second half of
   Day 4 and into Day 5, with the wave -- and associated upper feature
   -- to then shift off the FL/GA coast by the end of Day 5 (early
   Friday 11-10).  Should ample frontal wave development occur
   (sufficient to permit a warm sector to become established and
   low-level veering/shear to increase ahead of the wave) some severe
   risk could materialize in the southeast AL/southern GA/northern FL
   vicinity.  However, at this time will refrain from any inclusion of
   a risk area, given lack of confidence at this time that SLGT
   risk-level potential will evolve.

   ..Goss.. 11/05/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: November 05, 2017
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