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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 6, 2017
Updated: Mon Nov 6 09:01:03 UTC 2017
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 6, 2017
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 6, 2017
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 6, 2017
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 6, 2017
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 6, 2017
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 6, 2017
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, Nov 09, 2017 - Fri, Nov 10, 2017 D7Sun, Nov 12, 2017 - Mon, Nov 13, 2017
D5Fri, Nov 10, 2017 - Sat, Nov 11, 2017 D8Mon, Nov 13, 2017 - Tue, Nov 14, 2017
D6Sat, Nov 11, 2017 - Sun, Nov 12, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 060859
   SPC AC 060859

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0259 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2017

   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range models appear to be in fairly good agreement early in
   the period, with respect to large-scale pattern depiction.  Some
   deviation occurs by the start of Day 6 (Saturday 11-11), primarily
   surrounding the advance of a short-wave trough across the central
   and eastern U.S. through the weekend.  However, more broadly
   speaking, the pattern appears unfavorable for appreciable severe
   risk through the entire period.

   ..Goss.. 11/06/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: November 06, 2017
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