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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 7, 2017
Updated: Tue Nov 7 10:02:02 UTC 2017
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 7, 2017
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 7, 2017
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 7, 2017
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 7, 2017
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 7, 2017
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 7, 2017
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Fri, Nov 10, 2017 - Sat, Nov 11, 2017 D7Mon, Nov 13, 2017 - Tue, Nov 14, 2017
D5Sat, Nov 11, 2017 - Sun, Nov 12, 2017 D8Tue, Nov 14, 2017 - Wed, Nov 15, 2017
D6Sun, Nov 12, 2017 - Mon, Nov 13, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 071000
   SPC AC 071000

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2017

   Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range deterministic runs from 00Z this evening are exhibiting
   good large-scale consistency/agreement through much of the Day 4-8
   period, though differences do exist with respect to timing of a
   rather low-amplitude upper trough progged to move through the
   background westerly flow field from the western U.S. (Day 4/Friday)
   to the East Coast (Day 7/Monday).  Nonetheless, with a prior
   intrusion of broad surface high pressure, and rather low-amplitude
   nature of the upper system, a weak surface reflection of this
   feature is indicated as it traverses the country, and thus severe
   risk appears minimal to negligible.

   Models suggest that a second trough will begin crossing the western
   U.S. Days 7-8, but at this time, any moisture return into the
   central U.S. Day 8 appears insufficient to support development of
   appreciable instability through the end of the period.

   ..Goss.. 11/07/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: November 07, 2017
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