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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 27, 2017
Updated: Mon Nov 27 08:48:02 UTC 2017
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 27, 2017
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 27, 2017
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 27, 2017
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 27, 2017
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 27, 2017
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 27, 2017
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, Nov 30, 2017 - Fri, Dec 01, 2017 D7Sun, Dec 03, 2017 - Mon, Dec 04, 2017
D5Fri, Dec 01, 2017 - Sat, Dec 02, 2017 D8Mon, Dec 04, 2017 - Tue, Dec 05, 2017
D6Sat, Dec 02, 2017 - Sun, Dec 03, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 270846
   SPC AC 270846

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0246 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2017

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A stable weather pattern is forecast to persist for the D4 to D6
   period with little threat of thunderstorms due to high pressure over
   the central and eastern states. Models indicate a large-scale upper
   trough amplification across the West in the D7 to D8 period, with
   rain and a few general thunderstorms possible on D7/Sun across the
   Southwestern states and Great Basin. 

   Some severe risk could develop across parts of the central and
   southern Plains by D8/Mon, as several days of southerly winds bring
   near-60 F dewpoints northward across TX, OK and KS resulting in
   destabilization. Strong lift in association with the advancing upper
   trough will likely result in thunderstorms, and some could be strong
   to severe with at least some wind and hail risk due to strong shear
   and cool temperatures aloft. However, predictability is currently
   too low to denote a risk area.

   ..Jewell.. 11/27/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: November 27, 2017
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