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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 28, 2017
Updated: Tue Nov 28 08:27:02 UTC 2017
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 28, 2017
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 28, 2017
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 28, 2017
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 28, 2017
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 28, 2017
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 28, 2017
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Fri, Dec 01, 2017 - Sat, Dec 02, 2017 D7Mon, Dec 04, 2017 - Tue, Dec 05, 2017
D5Sat, Dec 02, 2017 - Sun, Dec 03, 2017 D8Tue, Dec 05, 2017 - Wed, Dec 06, 2017
D6Sun, Dec 03, 2017 - Mon, Dec 04, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 280825
   SPC AC 280825

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017

   Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Stable conditions will persist across most of the CONUS during the
   D4-D5 time frame with west-northwest flow aloft from coast to coast
   along with high pressure.

   By Sun/D6, a western trough is forecast to amplify, but details are
   unclear. Various model ensemble solutions show considerable
   uncertainty with the evolution of this trough, which will eventually
   emerge into the Plains during the D7-D8 time frame. Regardless of
   preferred model solution, overall potential for severe storms
   appears to be on the low end of the risk spectrum, but perhaps still
   worthy of an eventual area should a sufficiently moist warm sector
   arise.

   ..Jewell.. 11/28/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: November 28, 2017
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