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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 29, 2017
Updated: Wed Nov 29 09:00:03 UTC 2017
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 29, 2017
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 29, 2017
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 29, 2017
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 29, 2017
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 29, 2017
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 29, 2017
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sat, Dec 02, 2017 - Sun, Dec 03, 2017 D7Tue, Dec 05, 2017 - Wed, Dec 06, 2017
D5Sun, Dec 03, 2017 - Mon, Dec 04, 2017 D8Wed, Dec 06, 2017 - Thu, Dec 07, 2017
D6Mon, Dec 04, 2017 - Tue, Dec 05, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 290858
   SPC AC 290858

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2017

   Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   While it appears likely a large upper trough will develop across the
   Rockies around Sun/D5 and continue eastward across the CONUS through
   Wed/D8, various model ensembles and especially deterministic runs
   show significant spread in both timing and amplitude of the primary
   synoptic features. An ECMWF-weighted outcome would be for a low-end
   severe thunderstorm risk Mon/D6 across the Lower and Mid MS Valleys,
   and into the OH and TN Valleys by Tue/D7, as instability will be
   weak, but sufficient given likely strong wind fields. But given
   predictability issues, it is much too early to outline a risk area.

   ..Jewell.. 11/29/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: November 29, 2017
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