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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 30, 2017
Updated: Thu Nov 30 08:32:02 UTC 2017
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 30, 2017
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 30, 2017
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 30, 2017
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 30, 2017
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 30, 2017
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 30, 2017
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Dec 03, 2017 - Mon, Dec 04, 2017 D7Wed, Dec 06, 2017 - Thu, Dec 07, 2017
D5Mon, Dec 04, 2017 - Tue, Dec 05, 2017 D8Thu, Dec 07, 2017 - Fri, Dec 08, 2017
D6Tue, Dec 05, 2017 - Wed, Dec 06, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 300830
   SPC AC 300830

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2017

   Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Various model ensemble member solutions are in reasonable agreement
   for the D4-D5 period, depicting a large, positive-tilt upper trough
   over the Plains on D5 and further amplifying across the MS Valley on
   D6. By late afternoon on Mon/D5, a cold front will extend southward
   from a Lake Superior surface low across MO, eastern OK, and eastern
   TX. Southerly winds will bring lower 60s F dewpoints as far north as
   MO, beneath 500 mb temperatures on the order of -15 C. This will
   only result in weak instability, with MUCAPE on the order of 500
   J/kg. Thunderstorms are likely along this front, especially late in
   the day and into Tue/D6, from MO to the Arklatex. Flow aloft will be
   largely parallel to the cold front, suggesting a linear storm mode.
   The weak instability and possibility of nocturnal initiation during
   the D5 period will preclude any risk areas.

   For Tue/D6, an extensive area of rain and thunderstorms is expected
   to be ongoing along the front, roughly from the OH Valley to east
   TX. Instability will be even less than the previous day, with only a
   marginal risk of severe weather expected.

   Beyond D6, predictability becomes low, as does potential as an
   extensive upper trough develops, encompassing much of eastern North
   America and providing a sweeping cold front that will stabilize the
   area.

   ..Jewell.. 11/30/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: November 30, 2017
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