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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 1, 2017
Updated: Fri Dec 1 07:40:03 UTC 2017
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 1, 2017
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 1, 2017
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 1, 2017
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 1, 2017
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 1, 2017
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 1, 2017
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Mon, Dec 04, 2017 - Tue, Dec 05, 2017 D7Thu, Dec 07, 2017 - Fri, Dec 08, 2017
D5Tue, Dec 05, 2017 - Wed, Dec 06, 2017 D8Fri, Dec 08, 2017 - Sat, Dec 09, 2017
D6Wed, Dec 06, 2017 - Thu, Dec 07, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 010738
   SPC AC 010738

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0138 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2017

   Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   The mid/upper pattern will amplify considerably next week, as a deep
   trough develops across the eastern US and heights build over the
   western US. This transition will bring a cold, continental air mass
   to many locations east of the Rockies during the second half of the
   week, significantly reducing severe potential from D5/Tuesday
   onward. However, before then, some potential exists for a strongly
   forced band of convection along the cold front, perhaps from
   portions of the southern Plains / Ozarks northward to the mid
   Mississippi Valley. While surface-based buoyancy is unlikely to be
   higher than 500-750 J/kg in any one location, northward moisture
   return should be sufficient for at least weak buoyancy. Medium-range
   guidance depicts differences in the amplitude of a shortwave trough
   advancing across the central US though, such that mid-level lapse
   rate forecasts remain uncertain, considerably impacting forecast
   CAPE. Therefore, while no highlights are introduced at this time for
   D4/Monday, considering the strength of the wind field, buoyancy on
   the higher end of the forecast spectrum would likely necessitate
   severe probabilities in later forecasts.

   ..Picca.. 12/01/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: December 01, 2017
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