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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 29, 2017
Updated: Fri Dec 29 08:02:02 UTC 2017
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 29, 2017
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 29, 2017
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 29, 2017
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 29, 2017
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 29, 2017
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 29, 2017
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Mon, Jan 01, 2018 - Tue, Jan 02, 2018 D7Thu, Jan 04, 2018 - Fri, Jan 05, 2018
D5Tue, Jan 02, 2018 - Wed, Jan 03, 2018 D8Fri, Jan 05, 2018 - Sat, Jan 06, 2018
D6Wed, Jan 03, 2018 - Thu, Jan 04, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 290800
   SPC AC 290800

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2017

   Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   The medium range models suggest little potential for appreciable
   destabilization and convective development across the U.S. through
   much of next week.  East of the Rockies, expansive cold surface
   ridging appears likely to remain prominent across most areas through
   New Year's Day, before weakening over the Gulf states by midweek. 
   However, guidance continues to indicate that the large-scale pattern
   will remain unfavorable for substantive Gulf boundary layer
   modification and inland return flow.  

   There do continue to be indications within model output that a
   digging short wave impulse, within larger scale upper troughing over
   the eastern U.S., could contribute to significant cyclogenesis over
   the western Atlantic during the middle to latter portion of next
   week.  This could impact portions of the Atlantic Seaboard, and
   perhaps initiate along a frontal zone near the far southern Florida
   Peninsula, accompanied by some organized convective potential.  At
   the present time, however, any commencement of cyclogenesis seems
   most probable offshore of southeast Florida coastal areas.

   ..Kerr.. 12/29/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: December 29, 2017
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