Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 29, 2017
Updated: Fri Dec 29 08:02:02 UTC 2017
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Jan 01, 2018 - Tue, Jan 02, 2018
D7
Thu, Jan 04, 2018 - Fri, Jan 05, 2018
D5
Tue, Jan 02, 2018 - Wed, Jan 03, 2018
D8
Fri, Jan 05, 2018 - Sat, Jan 06, 2018
D6
Wed, Jan 03, 2018 - Thu, Jan 04, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290800
SPC AC 290800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2017
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The medium range models suggest little potential for appreciable
destabilization and convective development across the U.S. through
much of next week. East of the Rockies, expansive cold surface
ridging appears likely to remain prominent across most areas through
New Year's Day, before weakening over the Gulf states by midweek.
However, guidance continues to indicate that the large-scale pattern
will remain unfavorable for substantive Gulf boundary layer
modification and inland return flow.
There do continue to be indications within model output that a
digging short wave impulse, within larger scale upper troughing over
the eastern U.S., could contribute to significant cyclogenesis over
the western Atlantic during the middle to latter portion of next
week. This could impact portions of the Atlantic Seaboard, and
perhaps initiate along a frontal zone near the far southern Florida
Peninsula, accompanied by some organized convective potential. At
the present time, however, any commencement of cyclogenesis seems
most probable offshore of southeast Florida coastal areas.
..Kerr.. 12/29/2017
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT