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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 28, 2016
Updated: Wed Sep 28 20:48:02 UTC 2016  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Fri, Sep 30, 2016 - Sat, Oct 01, 2016 D6Mon, Oct 03, 2016 - Tue, Oct 04, 2016
D4Sat, Oct 01, 2016 - Sun, Oct 02, 2016 D7Tue, Oct 04, 2016 - Wed, Oct 05, 2016
D5Sun, Oct 02, 2016 - Mon, Oct 03, 2016 D8Wed, Oct 05, 2016 - Thu, Oct 06, 2016
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282046

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

   VALID 301200Z - 061200Z

   UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST
   ON D3/FRI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ACCOMPANYING ENHANCED SWLY FLOW
   ALOFT/ WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF NRN CA...CNTRL/ERN PACIFIC NW...AND THE NWRN GREAT
   BASIN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW QUICKLY IN THE
   WAKE OF THE FIRST...HELPING TO DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE W
   COAST AND MAINTAIN SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE ENHANCED
   SWLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST
   MARGINALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS RESULTS IN A FIRE WEATHER FROM D3/FRI
   THROUGH D5/SUN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN. 

   THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH /PREVIOUSLY ALONG THE W COAST/ IS EXPECTED
   EJECT EWD ON D6/MON WITH STRONG MID/UPPER LEVER FLOW EXTENDING
   THROUGH ITS BASE FROM CNTRL CA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH THE
   SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. UNRECEPTIVE FUELS WILL PRECLUDE A FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT THE COMBINATION OF
   STRONG SWLY SURFACE WINDS...AT LEAST MODERATELY DRY FUELS...AND DRY
   SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND A 40-PERCENT AREA WAS
   INTRODUCED WITH THIS FORECAST. A BIT MORE RUN-TO-RUN AND
   MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY IS NEEDED BEFORE CONFIDENCE INCREASES
   ENOUGH FOR A 70-PERCENT DELINEATION. SOME THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO
   D7/TUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
   PRECLUDE INTRODUCING ANY AREAS WITH THIS FORECAST.

   ..MOSIER.. 09/28/2016

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: September 28, 2016
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