ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 161958
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012
   
   VALID 181200Z - 241200Z
   
   AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
   EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. AS THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD...A BELT OF
   STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SRN SEMICIRCLE WILL SUPPORT STRONG AND GUSTY
   WINDS ACROSS THE SW STATES ON D3/FRI AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS ON D4/SAT. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE
   ROCKIES WILL INDUCE A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE
   SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE
   AREA OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS ON D3/FRI.
   GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
   SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON D4/SAT. ON
   D5/SUN...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   MOVING EWD INTO SRN ONTARIO WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN
   CONUS IN ITS WAKE. 
   
   ...D3/FRI: SRN GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST...
   AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD...A LARGE AREA OF
   ENHANCED WINDS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS AZ NEWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES.
   BEST SUPPORT FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE AROUND THE BASAL PORTION OF
   THE TROUGH SO THE PRECISE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
   HAVE A LARGE EFFECT ON THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. LATEST
   MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE
   TRACK OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN AN EWD SHIFT OF THE STRONGEST
   WINDS. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED WWD EXTENT AND EXPANDED THE EWD EXTENT
   OF THE CURRENT CRITICAL AREA. FASTER TROUGH WILL ALSO REDUCE THE
   LIKELIHOOD OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH FOR MORE THAN 3 HOURS ACROSS
   WRN CO/SRN WY SO THIS AREA WAS TRIMMED OUT AS WELL. POOR RH RECOVERY
   IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT
   BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES....RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RH VALUES
   BELOW 15 PERCENT. FUELS ARE ALSO DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
   THEREFORE...CURRENT LIMITING FACTOR ON THE EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL
   AREA IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH/DURATION OF THE STRONG
   WINDS. AS SUCH...REFINEMENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS AS THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THE TROUGH
   BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
   
   ...D3/FRI: PLAINS...
   A LARGE SWATH OF STRONG SLY WINDS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS
   AHEAD OF AN EWD PROGRESSING TROUGH. SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 20
   MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS AREA HAS
   EXPERIENCED GREEN-UP AND RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 20
   PERCENT. AS A RESULT...NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 05/16/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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