ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 091056
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0556 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2008
   
   VALID 111200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
   CNTRL CONUS INITIALLY ON DAY 3/SUN...SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
   ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH DAY 4/MON. DURING THIS TIME
   FRAME...THE NEXT POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NW
   AND EVENTUALLY AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WRN OR CNTRL CONUS. THE ECMWF AND
   TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS AMPLIFICATION
   MORE SO OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS AND
   MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST DIGGING WILL TAKE PLACE
   OVER THE GREAT BASIN. DESPITE THESE MAJOR EVOLUTION
   DIFFERENCES...STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE SRN
   ROCKIES REGION AND LIKELY LEAD TO CRITICAL THREATS ON DAYS 4/5
   MON/TUE. THE SPATIAL EXTENT REMAINS THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY AND
   WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A GENERALLY MORE CONSERVATIVE AREAL
   DELINEATION...FOLLOWING THE ECMWF.
   
   IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
   MID-ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SWD INTO NRN/CNTRL FL ON
   DAY 4/MON. GUSTY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED DRYING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
   WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF TSTMS/RAINFALL PRIOR TO FRONTAL
   PASSAGE MITIGATE A CRITICAL AREA INCLUSION ATTM.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/09/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$