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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 24, 2017
Updated: Sat Jun 24 20:41:03 UTC 2017  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Mon, Jun 26, 2017 - Tue, Jun 27, 2017 D6Thu, Jun 29, 2017 - Fri, Jun 30, 2017
D4Tue, Jun 27, 2017 - Wed, Jun 28, 2017 D7Fri, Jun 30, 2017 - Sat, Jul 01, 2017
D5Wed, Jun 28, 2017 - Thu, Jun 29, 2017 D8Sat, Jul 01, 2017 - Sun, Jul 02, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 242039

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0339 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

   Valid 261200Z - 021200Z

   ...Dry-thunderstorm potential...
   A midlevel impulse is forecast to track from the east Pacific to the
   northern High Plains early this upcoming week, contributing to the
   de-amplification of an antecedent midlevel ridge. Related ascent is
   forecast to combine with sufficient moisture and buoyancy aloft for
   isolated dry-thunderstorm potential over the vicinity of the
   northern Great Basin for Day-3/Monday. Deep, well-mixed boundary
   layers will encourage ample sub-cloud evaporation and limit
   precipitation amounts, fostering a dry-thunderstorm mode amid areas
   of dry fuels. For Day-4/Tuesday, some dry-thunderstorm potential may
   affect parts of MT and vicinity as the impulse continues progressing
   eastward. However, confidence in sufficient coverage of this
   activity affecting locations where dry fuels exist (i.e., across
   parts of eastern and north-central MT) is presently too limited for
   dry-thunderstorm probabilities on Day-4/Tuesday.

   ...Strong-wind/low-RH potential...
   Around early parts of this upcoming week, an enhancement to
   low/midlevel flow will occur across portions of the western states,
   in association with a tightened height gradient aloft. This will
   occur peripheral to the aforementioned impulse and an amplifying,
   broad cyclone. Each day from Day-3/Monday through Day-5/Wednesday,
   40-percent areas are in effect. However, Critical areas have not
   been added at this time, owing to notable differences among model
   solutions and relatively modest low-level flow strength depicted by
   multiple model solutions.

   Also of note, some Elevated fire-weather potential may affect
   portions of eastern and north-central MT on Day-3/Monday and
   Day-4/Tuesday, as the surface pressure gradient tightens and winds
   increase/shift with frontal passage. Confidence in RH values
   becoming critically low where dry fuels exist is too limited for
   probabilistic delineations at this time.

   For Day-6/Thursday through Day-8/Saturday, notable differences among
   medium-range model guidance regarding the evolution of the
   large-scale pattern yields too little predictability for
   probabilistic delineations. Furthermore, the bulk of model solutions
   indicate weak low/midlevel flow amid dry surface conditions
   relegated to portions of the western states, limiting the
   fire-weather risk.

   ..Cohen.. 06/24/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: June 24, 2017
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