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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 12, 2016
Updated: Fri Feb 12 21:46:03 UTC 2016  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sun, Feb 14, 2016 - Mon, Feb 15, 2016 D6Wed, Feb 17, 2016 - Thu, Feb 18, 2016
D4Mon, Feb 15, 2016 - Tue, Feb 16, 2016 D7Thu, Feb 18, 2016 - Fri, Feb 19, 2016
D5Tue, Feb 16, 2016 - Wed, Feb 17, 2016 D8Fri, Feb 19, 2016 - Sat, Feb 20, 2016
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 122144

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

   VALID 141200Z - 201200Z

   THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
   COAST...AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.
   THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
   SEABOARD...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ASHORE THE WEST COAST. BETWEEN
   THESE TWO...BROAD RIDGING WILL PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO
   THE MS VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. OVERALL...THE MID-LEVEL SYNOPTIC
   PATTERN SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE
   PERIOD.

   ...D3/SUN-D4/MON -- SOUTHERN CA...
   AS AT LEAST TWO IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSLATE
   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CA COAST TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA...SFC
   RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN NV. IN RESPONSE...NELY FLOW SHOULD
   INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
   /ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS/...AS AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT
   TIGHTENS. WITH A DRY AIR MASS ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST AND
   WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW PRESENT...RH VALUES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15-20
   PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS. WHILE LIVE FUELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
   RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD...DEAD/DRY FINE FUELS SHOULD SUPPORT A
   GREATER THREAT. THEREFORE...40-PERCENT AREAS ARE INTRODUCED FOR
   D3/SUN-D4/MON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA.

   ...D5/TUE-D8/FRI -- SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...RESULTING FROM THE
   CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
   SOUTHWESTERN STATES. WHILE PERIODS OF MODEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL
   OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX/OK DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...AREAS
   FARTHER WEST -- ERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS -- WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN TO THE WEST OF MORE APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE
   UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TIMING OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES /AND
   ATTENDANT INCREASES IN MID-LEVEL FLOW AND LEE
   TROUGHING/...DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST RELATIVELY HIGH
   CONFIDENCE IN STRONG/DRY SWLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON
   D7/THU...AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
   THEREFORE...A 40-PERCENT AREA IS INTRODUCED FROM ERN NM TO SWRN
   KS...AND A 70-PERCENT AREA MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER UPDATES.
   ADDITIONALLY...40-PERCENT AREAS MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR D6/WED AND
   D8/FRI.

   ..PICCA.. 02/12/2016

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: February 12, 2016
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