Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on May 23, 2013
Updated: Thu May 23 20:38:03 UTC 2013 (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
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PDF. Note: Starting on June 5, 2012 to January 30, 2013, SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic
Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Day 3 to 8 with individual web graphics.
Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind)
Fire Weather Outlooks.
Please read the
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http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Flagstaff, AZ...St. George, UT...Farmington, NM...Gallup, NM...Tuba City, AZ...
D3
Sat, May 25, 2013 - Sun, May 26, 2013
D6
Tue, May 28, 2013 - Wed, May 29, 2013
D4
Sun, May 26, 2013 - Mon, May 27, 2013
D7
Wed, May 29, 2013 - Thu, May 30, 2013
D5
Mon, May 27, 2013 - Tue, May 28, 2013
D8
Thu, May 30, 2013 - Fri, May 31, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 232036
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
VALID 251200Z - 311200Z
ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH TIME...THE OVERALL TREND OF
THE MODELS IS TO BUILD AN EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WITH A WEST COAST
TROUGH ADVANCING EWD. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IS IN THE INTENSITY AND
SPEED OF THIS WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH. MOST OF ARIZONA AND THE
WESTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM/HOT AND DRY
WITH EPISODIC PERIODS IN INCREASED AFTERNOON SWLY WINDS. THE AREA
REMAINS IN LONG TERM DROUGHT WITH VERY DRY FUELS. SOME
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON DAYS 3-4/SAT-SUN ACROSS THE EASTERN
ONE/THIRD OF NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DAY 3/SAT WITH A CRITICAL
AREA ACROSS NRN AZ/NW NM/SW CO AND SRN UT FOR STRONG SWLY WINDS/WARM
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY. SURROUNDING THIS AREA WILL BE AN AREA
OF ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS WITH LESSER WIND SPEED EXPECTED.
FROM DAYS 4-8/SUN-THUR...SOME PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...BASED ON MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
ADVANCING WEST COAST TROUGH...CANNOT HIGHLIGHT ANY CRITICAL AREA IN
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER DAY 3. PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND THE WESTERN HALF
OF NEW MEXICO WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS.
..BOTHWELL.. 05/23/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
$$
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
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