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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 20, 2014
Updated: Mon Oct 20 21:47:02 UTC 2014  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Starting June 25, 2013, the SPC will issue Experimental Dry Thunderstorm Fire Weather Outlooks for Days 4 through 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Day 3-8 Fire Weather Categorical Outlooks (D3-8 FW Categorical). Scalloped areas (in Day3-8 graphics)/dashed areas (in individual day graphics) will indicate areas where the combination of numerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, generally less than one-tenth inch of rain and dry fuels are forecast. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD), Public Information Notice (PNS), and provide feedback using this link: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=DTFWO. The experiment will end on July 30, 2013 and a decision will be made whether to proceed with testing, revise the test, or continue on the path to operational production.
Note: Starting on June 5, 2012 to January 30, 2013, SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Day 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
D3-8 FW Categorical D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Prob. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Oct 22, 2014 - Thu, Oct 23, 2014 D6Sat, Oct 25, 2014 - Sun, Oct 26, 2014
D4Thu, Oct 23, 2014 - Fri, Oct 24, 2014 D7Sun, Oct 26, 2014 - Mon, Oct 27, 2014
D5Fri, Oct 24, 2014 - Sat, Oct 25, 2014 D8Mon, Oct 27, 2014 - Tue, Oct 28, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202145

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

   VALID 221200Z - 281200Z

   FOR MIDDLE/LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
   BUILD INTO THE SWRN/S-CNTRL CONUS...BEFORE A TROUGH ARRIVES OVER THE
   WRN CONUS THIS WEEKEND SHUNTING THE RIDGE EWD. FOR D5/FRI INTO
   D6/SAT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SWLYS/WLYS PRECEDING THE
   TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN TO
   WY...RESULTING IN AREAS OF STRONG SFC WINDS -- ESPECIALLY ON D6/SAT.
   SOME FIRE-WEATHER RISK COULD ENSUE WHERE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS BOLSTER
   BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING/DRYING. DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS
   REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
   DRYING YIELD SUFFICIENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER RISK FOR PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS AT THIS TIME.

   ALSO OF NOTE...DRY SFC CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR
   SECTIONS OF SRN CA INCLUDING THE COASTAL RANGES/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE D3/WED-D8/MON PERIOD. IN GENERAL...WINDS ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...MITIGATING THE FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL.
   HOWEVER...SFC RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
   THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
   INCREASE IN NELY/ELY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE SRN-CA COASTAL
   RANGES/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FOR D7/SUN-D8/MON. REGARDLESS...
   DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
   SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT STRONG-WIND POTENTIAL LIMIT
   CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK. FURTHERMORE...MANY MODEL
   SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT
   WINDS WILL REMAIN LIMITED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THESE
   REASONS...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS
   TIME.

   ..COHEN.. 10/20/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: October 20, 2014
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