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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on May 23, 2018
Updated: Wed May 23 21:49:04 UTC 2018  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D4 27,608 206,093 Gallup, NM...Winslow, AZ...Grants, NM...
D3Fri, May 25, 2018 - Sat, May 26, 2018 D6Mon, May 28, 2018 - Tue, May 29, 2018
D4Sat, May 26, 2018 - Sun, May 27, 2018 D7Tue, May 29, 2018 - Wed, May 30, 2018
D5Sun, May 27, 2018 - Mon, May 28, 2018 D8Wed, May 30, 2018 - Thu, May 31, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 232147

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0447 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

   Valid 251200Z - 311200Z

   A closed mid-level trough is forecast to move over California and
   into the Great Basin on Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday. This feature
   is likely to slow down and stall out over the Great Basin on Day
   4/Saturday - Day 6/Monday. Latest forecast guidance shows the closed
   mid-level trough weakening and becoming an open wave as it slowly
   moves north-northeast Day 6/Monday - Day 7/Tuesday with broad
   southwesterly flow developing aloft over the western US through the
   end of the outlook period. 

   ...Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday: Southern Great Basin and
   Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Day 3/Friday
   across far southern Nevada, far southwestern Utah, and northern
   Arizona as stronger boundary layer winds develop. With receptive
   fuels in the area, an attendant 40% probability was included. Near
   critical fire weather conditions are possible farther north across
   southern/central Nevada and southern/western Utah, but ERCs are at
   or below average and dead fuel moisture values are at or above
   average, which precludes from introducing any probabilities at this

   Latest model guidance is trending towards widespread elevated to
   critical fire weather conditions across southern/eastern Utah,
   western Colorado, northern Arizona, and western New Mexico on Day
   4/Saturday. A 70% probability has been introduced across parts of
   northeastern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico where the strongest
   winds/lowest RH are most likely to develop. Lee troughing across the
   southern High Plains could yield critical fire weather conditions,
   but recent rainfall/green-up and uncertainty regarding the
   strength/location of the surface low precludes introducing any
   probabilities for this area on Day 4/Saturday. 

   ...Day 5/Sunday - Day 8/Wednesday: Southwest into the Southern High
   Widespread near critical fire weather conditions are likely to
   develop over eastern Arizona, most of New Mexico, and southern
   Colorado on Day 5/Sunday. There is some model disagreement regarding
   where the closed mid-level trough will stall out over the Great
   Basin, which will affect the location/strength of lee troughing
   across the southern High Plains. Given this uncertainty and the
   aforementioned recent rainfall/green-up in the area, an upgrade was
   not warranted for Day 5/Sunday. 

   The Southwest and southern High Plains should remain dry and breezy
   through the forecast period, but widespread critical fire weather
   conditions are not currently anticipated on Day 6/Monday - Day

   ..Nauslar.. 05/23/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: May 23, 2018
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