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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 3, 2015
Updated: Fri Jul 3 19:38:02 UTC 2015  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sun, Jul 05, 2015 - Mon, Jul 06, 2015 D6Wed, Jul 08, 2015 - Thu, Jul 09, 2015
D4Mon, Jul 06, 2015 - Tue, Jul 07, 2015 D7Thu, Jul 09, 2015 - Fri, Jul 10, 2015
D5Tue, Jul 07, 2015 - Wed, Jul 08, 2015 D8Fri, Jul 10, 2015 - Sat, Jul 11, 2015
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 031936

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

   VALID 051200Z - 111200Z

   THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
   WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A RIDGE OVER A LARGE PART OF THE WESTERN
   CONUS...AND A BELT OF ENHANCED QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.  A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
   MOVE VERY LITTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM D3/SUN
   THROUGH D5/TUE...AFTER WHICH IT WILL MERGE WITH A LARGER-SCALE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.  THE WESTERN RIDGE
   WILL BREAK DOWN BEGINNING D5/TUE AS A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES
   INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING THE
   SPEED OF THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST...LOWERING PREDICTABILITY
   BEYOND D6/WED.

   ...D3/SUN THROUGH D5/TUE: PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
   LOW CHANCES OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR
   THIS PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION REMAINS
   WEAK/CONVOLUTED...STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY DUE TO INSOLATION WILL
   RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN
   AND RIDGELINES ON EACH AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MARGINS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD DRY
   THUNDERSTORM THREAT /AROUND 0.8-1.0 INCH/ BUT GIVEN DRY FUEL
   CONDITIONS...ANY DRY AREAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
   LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRE STARTS.  AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD MEET
   CRITICAL CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK LARGE-SCALE FLOW SHOULD
   LIMIT A HIGHER FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS
   INFLUENCED BY TERRAIN.

   ...D7/THU: SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN UPPER LOW ENTERS NORTHERN
   CALIFORNIA.  GIVEN THE PRE-EXISTING DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND STRONG
   AFTERNOON SOLAR HEATING...AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS
   POSSIBLE.  ONE MITIGATING FACTOR FOR INTRODUCING PROBABILITIES FOR
   THIS FORECAST REMAINS DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE SPEED
   OF THIS UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST.  AS
   TIMING BECOMES MORE CERTAIN AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE
   CLEAR...PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN PARTS OF THE AREA
   IN LATER FORECASTS.

   ..COOK.. 07/03/2015

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: July 03, 2015
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