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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 31, 2014
Updated: Thu Jul 31 20:19:03 UTC 2014  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Starting June 25, 2013, the SPC will issue Experimental Dry Thunderstorm Fire Weather Outlooks for Days 4 through 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Day 3-8 Fire Weather Categorical Outlooks (D3-8 FW Categorical). Scalloped areas (in Day3-8 graphics)/dashed areas (in individual day graphics) will indicate areas where the combination of numerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, generally less than one-tenth inch of rain and dry fuels are forecast. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD), Public Information Notice (PNS), and provide feedback using this link: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=DTFWO. The experiment will end on July 30, 2013 and a decision will be made whether to proceed with testing, revise the test, or continue on the path to operational production.
Note: Starting on June 5, 2012 to January 30, 2013, SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Day 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
D3-8 FW Categorical D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Prob. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sat, Aug 02, 2014 - Sun, Aug 03, 2014 D6Tue, Aug 05, 2014 - Wed, Aug 06, 2014
D4Sun, Aug 03, 2014 - Mon, Aug 04, 2014 D7Wed, Aug 06, 2014 - Thu, Aug 07, 2014
D5Mon, Aug 04, 2014 - Tue, Aug 05, 2014 D8Thu, Aug 07, 2014 - Fri, Aug 08, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 312017

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 081200Z

   IN THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN CONUS INTO
   EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN. THIS WILL GIVE
   WAY TO A MULTI-STREAM...GENERALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
   THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK...AS OCCASIONAL PERTURBATIONS MOVE ONSHORE
   FROM THE E PACIFIC. WITH SUFFICIENT SUBTROPICAL AND MONSOONAL
   MOISTURE COVERING PORTIONS OF THE WRN STATES...THESE DISTURBANCES
   WILL REINFORCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE WEST -- AIDED BY DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE DRY...WITH
   LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE EDGES OF
   RAIN CORES. HOWEVER...IN ADDITION TO LOW PREDICTABILITY ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATIONS...MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
   INDICATES LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT
   WILL STRONGLY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN AREAS WHERE
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE.
   ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY LIMITED STORM MOTIONS AND PW VALUES OVER
   0.75 INCH COULD SUPPORT STORMS WITH WETTING RAINS IN MANY AREAS. AS
   SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS
   TIME FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH ARE
   NOT FORECAST TO COMBINE IN SUPPORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.

   ..COHEN.. 07/31/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: July 31, 2014
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