Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 3, 2013
Updated: Thu Jan 3 21:18:03 UTC 2013 (Print Version)
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 032116
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CST THU JAN 03 2013
VALID 051200Z - 111200Z
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT OVER THE CONUS...AS A WRN-CONUS RIDGE FLATTENS IN
RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. ACROSS THE
COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...PERIODS OF
ENHANCED NELY TO ELY SFC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON D3/SAT.
HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ARE UNLIKELY OWING TO THE ABSENCE OF A
TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT / STRONGER DEEP FLOW.
FURTHERMORE...THE PRESENCE OF UNFAVORABLE FUELS WITH THE RECENT
OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
FOR NEXT WEEK...LARGE DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS GREATLY
LIMITS PREDICTABILITY REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN COVERING THE
CONUS. REGARDLESS...THE CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
EARLY/MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS THAT A CYCLONE WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SWRN/S-CNTRL CONUS...PERHAPS
FOLLOWED BY A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES AND E PACIFIC.
ENHANCED DEEP FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE CYCLONE AND THE TROUGH MAY
SUPPORT AREAS OF STRONG SFC WINDS ACROSS THE SWRN/S-CNTRL CONUS.
ALSO...SUBSIDENT FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE CYCLONE CENTER MAY SUPPORT SFC
RIDGING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN. THE CORRESPONDING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED OFFSHORE FLOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA FOR D6/TUE THROUGH D8/THU.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS...ABOVE-CRITICAL RH
VALUES...AND/OR AREAS OF ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION WITH UNFAVORABLE
FUELS MAY MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT WHERE STRONG SFC WINDS
OCCUR. AND...GIVEN THE LACK OF PREDICTABILITY REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...FIRE WEATHER PROBABILITIES
HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED.
..COHEN.. 01/03/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
$$
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
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