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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 29, 2014
Updated: Wed Oct 29 21:03:02 UTC 2014  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Starting June 25, 2013, the SPC will issue Experimental Dry Thunderstorm Fire Weather Outlooks for Days 4 through 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Day 3-8 Fire Weather Categorical Outlooks (D3-8 FW Categorical). Scalloped areas (in Day3-8 graphics)/dashed areas (in individual day graphics) will indicate areas where the combination of numerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, generally less than one-tenth inch of rain and dry fuels are forecast. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD), Public Information Notice (PNS), and provide feedback using this link: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=DTFWO. The experiment will end on July 30, 2013 and a decision will be made whether to proceed with testing, revise the test, or continue on the path to operational production.
Note: Starting on June 5, 2012 to January 30, 2013, SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Day 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
D3-8 FW Categorical D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Prob. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Fri, Oct 31, 2014 - Sat, Nov 01, 2014 D6Mon, Nov 03, 2014 - Tue, Nov 04, 2014
D4Sat, Nov 01, 2014 - Sun, Nov 02, 2014 D7Tue, Nov 04, 2014 - Wed, Nov 05, 2014
D5Sun, Nov 02, 2014 - Mon, Nov 03, 2014 D8Wed, Nov 05, 2014 - Thu, Nov 06, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 292101

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

   VALID 311200Z - 061200Z

   AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A PAIR OF UPPER TROUGHS AND A
   CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
   THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE AN
   AMPLIFYING PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME
   CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN WIND
   SPEEDS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
   INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT GENERALLY COOL
   TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW RH ACROSS THESE
   AREAS. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE WINDS
   DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN CA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS
   BEGIN TO DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO
   THE MAGNITUDE/TIMING OF THIS EVENT.

   ...SUN/D5 THROUGH WED/D8 -- SRN CA...
   OFFSHORE WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SUN/D5 ACROSS
   PARTS OF SRN CA AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
   GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH. THE SFC HIGH IS
   EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUE/D7...WHEN THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT
   MAY SUPPORT THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF SRN CA. 

   HOWEVER...POTENTIALLY LIMITING FACTORS EXIST THAT PRECLUDE
   PROBABILISTIC DELINEATION ATTM. MODEL UNCERTAINTY DEPICTING THE
   UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION...AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE...REMAINS
   HIGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A SLOWER AND DEEPER
   UPPER TROUGH...AND A STRONGER OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHILE
   OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE EVOLUTION.
   ADDITIONALLY...WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ON SAT/D4...AND
   TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK IN THE
   WAKE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT BASIN...DESPITE
   DOWNSLOPE/OFFSHORE WINDS AND A DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER.

   ..ROGERS.. 10/29/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: October 29, 2014
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