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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 18, 2017
Updated: Sat Nov 18 21:49:02 UTC 2017  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Mon, Nov 20, 2017 - Tue, Nov 21, 2017 D6Thu, Nov 23, 2017 - Fri, Nov 24, 2017
D4Tue, Nov 21, 2017 - Wed, Nov 22, 2017 D7Fri, Nov 24, 2017 - Sat, Nov 25, 2017
D5Wed, Nov 22, 2017 - Thu, Nov 23, 2017 D8Sat, Nov 25, 2017 - Sun, Nov 26, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 182147

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

   Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

   An upper-level ridge is expected to build over the Southwest early
   in the extended period, as a large-scale upper trough remains in
   place over the central and eastern CONUS. This general pattern is
   expected to remain in place for much of the extended period. At the
   surface, this pattern is expected to result in periodic bouts of dry
   and windy conditions across portions of the Great Plains as
   low-level flow becomes enhanced in advance of and immediately behind
   cold frontal passages. Further west, weak offshore flow will result
   in generally warm and dry conditions across portions of southern CA
   for much of the upcoming weak, though at this time forecast winds
   appear too light for a more substantial threat in that area. 

   ...D3/Monday: Portions of the southern/central High Plains...
   Modestly enhanced westerly downslope flow is expected to result in
   elevated to potentially critical conditions from eastern NM into
   portions of West TX on Monday. A 40% area has been included for this
   region. At this time, the greatest potential for critical conditions
   appears to be across portions of east-central NM, but too much
   uncertainty remains for an upgrade. 

   Dry and windy conditions are also expected further north across
   portions of northeast CO, the NE Panhandle, and southeast WY.
   Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible across this
   region; however, guidance currently suggests the strongest winds
   will be across portions of southeast WY, where there is greater
   uncertainty regarding fuel receptivity due to lingering snow cover
   as of this afternoon. As a result, no probabilities have been
   included for this area. 

   ...D4/Tuesday: Southeast NM into West TX...
   Relatively dry and windy conditions are expected across portions of
   southeast NM and west TX on Tuesday within a post-frontal regime. No
   probabilities have been included for this area since the potential
   for critically low RH appears too low at this time. However,
   elevated to locally critical conditions may materialize on Tuesday
   afternoon across this area.

   ..Dean.. 11/18/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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