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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 18, 2017
Updated: Sat Feb 18 21:42:02 UTC 2017  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D6 31,616 941,648 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...
D3Mon, Feb 20, 2017 - Tue, Feb 21, 2017 D6Thu, Feb 23, 2017 - Fri, Feb 24, 2017
D4Tue, Feb 21, 2017 - Wed, Feb 22, 2017 D7Fri, Feb 24, 2017 - Sat, Feb 25, 2017
D5Wed, Feb 22, 2017 - Thu, Feb 23, 2017 D8Sat, Feb 25, 2017 - Sun, Feb 26, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 182140

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

   Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

   An active, progressive synoptic pattern will persist across the
   Lower 48 this week, supporting periods of elevated to critical fire
   weather conditions primarily over the High Plains.  A low over Texas
   will cut off and move eastward into the western Gulf of Mexico from
   D3/Mon into D4/Tue.  This low will be replaced by another mid-level
   trough over the interior west and a strong (75-90 knot) mid-level
   jet that will eject out onto the Plains around D6/Thu.  As this
   occurs, substantial surface cyclogenesis will take place in the
   Colorado Front Range, with strong downslope flow and a synoptically
   evident critical fire weather pattern taking shape D6/Thu afternoon.

   ...D3/Mon - Portions of the Central Plains...
   Northerly/northwesterly surface flow will develop to the west of a
   surface trough and east of a surface high centered over Colorado. 
   Warming afternoon surface temperatures (reaching the 50s and low 60s
   F) will combine with critically low RH values and dry fuels for an
   elevated fire weather threat across the region.

   ...D5/Wed through D6/Thu - Portions of the Central and Southern High
   Plains...
   Westerly surface flow is expected to increase across the region in
   response to gradually strengthening surface low over the Colorado
   Front Range.  Models suggest that this low will organize D5/Wed and
   then deepen more substantially during the afternoon Thursday, along
   with an attendant increase in wind speeds.  Low RH values on each
   afternoon, along with expected dry fuels and a lack of appreciable
   antecedent rainfall suggest widespread elevated/locally critical
   fire weather conditions on D5/Wed afternoon and perhaps higher-end
   fire weather conditions in portions of eastern New Mexico and west
   Texas on D6/Thu afternoon.  Broad areas of 40% and 70% probabilities
   have been added for this forecast, and will likely need to be
   reconfigured/expanded accordingly as details regarding this fire
   weather scenario (including timing of the western mid-level wave and
   attendant mid-level jet) become clearer.

   ..Cook.. 02/18/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: February 18, 2017
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