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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 21, 2018
Updated: Sun Jan 21 20:42:03 UTC 2018  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Tue, Jan 23, 2018 - Wed, Jan 24, 2018 D6Fri, Jan 26, 2018 - Sat, Jan 27, 2018
D4Wed, Jan 24, 2018 - Thu, Jan 25, 2018 D7Sat, Jan 27, 2018 - Sun, Jan 28, 2018
D5Thu, Jan 25, 2018 - Fri, Jan 26, 2018 D8Sun, Jan 28, 2018 - Mon, Jan 29, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 212040

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

   Fire weather concerns will likely be tied to surface troughing
   across the Great Plains in the lee of the Rockies from D4/Wed
   through D6/Fri.  The lee troughing will occur in response to an
   approaching long-wave trough across the Intermountain West, and
   while gusty southerly/southwesterly flow will develop in several
   areas, deeper moisture associated with a maritime tropical airmass
   should remain mostly confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and into
   portions of the Ark-La-Tex.  Eventually, a cold front will migrate
   southward across the central Plains late in the forecast period,
   although the timing and strength of this front remains in question.

   ...D4/Wed through D6/Fri - portions of the central and southern High
   Plains...
   An extended period of southerly flow will occur within a warm and
   dry airmass throughout the period.  The flow will increase in
   response to surface troughing and also increased low-level flow
   associated with a developing 850 mb jet.  Models are not
   particularly consistent with regard to low-level moisture/RH values,
   although it appears that at least locally critical conditions will
   exist in a few areas during the period - most likely in northeastern
   New Mexico and vicinity on D4/Wed and D5/Thu and again farther east
   into the Texas Panhandle and perhaps western Oklahoma on D6/Fri.  At
   least some of the highlighted areas may need probabilistic upgrades
   in the next few days as models come into better alignment regarding
   RH values.

   ..Cook.. 01/21/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: January 21, 2018
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