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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 27, 2017
Updated: Mon Mar 27 20:13:03 UTC 2017  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 21,442 32,288 No Major Population Center in Risk Area
D5 50,703 787,762 Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...Carlsbad, NM...
D3Wed, Mar 29, 2017 - Thu, Mar 30, 2017 D6Sat, Apr 01, 2017 - Sun, Apr 02, 2017
D4Thu, Mar 30, 2017 - Fri, Mar 31, 2017 D7Sun, Apr 02, 2017 - Mon, Apr 03, 2017
D5Fri, Mar 31, 2017 - Sat, Apr 01, 2017 D8Mon, Apr 03, 2017 - Tue, Apr 04, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 272010

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0310 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

   Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

   An active synoptic pattern in the western U.S. will foster periods
   of elevated to critical fire weather conditions in portions of the
   southwest, southern Rockies, and adjacent High Plains throughout the
   forecast period.  A significant cut off low, initially over the New
   Mexico/Texas border region on D3/Wed will migrate slowly eastward
   toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D5/Fri.  As this occurs,
   another more powerful mid-level low will amplify across the Lower
   Colorado River Valley, reaching the southern Rockies by D6/Sat and
   eventually the Plains by D7/Sun.  This low will aid in spreading
   very strong mid-level flow across the southwest and southern
   Rockies, coincident with a heightened fire weather threat in parts
   of those areas around that time frame.

   ...D3/Wed - Southwest Texas, far southern New Mexico, and far
   southeastern Arizona...
   The combination of a surface low over northwest Texas and strong
   mid-level flow will continue to foster critical/near-critical wind
   fields in portions of the region.  RH values should exhibit a
   substantial gradient from north to south across the region as cooler
   air filters into the area behind a cold front.  Generally, critical
   conditions remain likely in higher elevations of southwest Texas
   that remain undisturbed from areas of wetting rains and receive
   plenty of insolation throughout the day.  Near-critical conditions
   may exist north and west of this area (as far west as southeastern
   Arizona) although RH values should be higher in these regions.

   ...D4/Thu - Much of New Mexico, southwest Texas, and southeastern
   Arizona...
   Low level flow should slacken some as the region resides beneath
   shortwave ridging between a departing system near the Missouri
   Ozarks and another approaching system over California/Nevada. 
   Still, enough low-level flow will reside within a persistently dry
   airmass to foster the development of widespread elevated fire
   weather conditions, with locally critical conditions possible in
   terrain-favored areas.  

   ...D5/Fri - West Texas, much of New Mexico, and far southeastern
   Arizona...
   Westerly low-level flow should increase substantially as the region
   is influenced by strengthening mid-level flow aloft and substantial
   cyclogenesis over eastern New Mexico.  The continued dry airmass
   over the region, along with areas of dry fuels, should foster
   widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions during the
   afternoon, with higher-end critical conditions possible over
   southern New Mexico and far west Texas.

   ...D6/Sat through D8/Mon Apr 3 - Southeastern New Mexico and west
   Texas...
   Models begin to diverge substantially with regard to handling of the
   southwestern U.S. closed low.  Nevertheless, the overall pattern
   appears supportive of a few areas of continued westerly low-level
   flow and low RH.  Assuming dry fuels and a lack of antecedent
   rainfall, it appears that a few areas of at least elevated fire
   weather conditions are likely especially on D6/Sat and D7/Sun. 
   These conditions will likely remain possible on D8/Mon, although
   specific areas are difficult to point out at this time frame and
   highlights will be withheld at this time frame as a result.

   ..Cook.. 03/27/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: March 27, 2017
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