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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 23, 2018
Updated: Fri Mar 23 20:44:02 UTC 2018  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 102,018 1,655,311 El Paso, TX...Pueblo, CO...Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...
D4 45,976 937,634 Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Clovis, NM...Carlsbad, NM...
D3Sun, Mar 25, 2018 - Mon, Mar 26, 2018 D6Wed, Mar 28, 2018 - Thu, Mar 29, 2018
D4Mon, Mar 26, 2018 - Tue, Mar 27, 2018 D7Thu, Mar 29, 2018 - Fri, Mar 30, 2018
D5Tue, Mar 27, 2018 - Wed, Mar 28, 2018 D8Fri, Mar 30, 2018 - Sat, Mar 31, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 232042

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

   Valid 251200Z - 311200Z

   The mid-level pattern will remain relatively amplified late this
   weekend into next week. Initially, deep cyclonic flow over the
   western US will place much of the Desert Southwest and Plains under
   considerable southwesterly flow aloft, impacting fire-weather
   concerns (see section below). The trough axis will gradually advance
   eastward towards the Plains next week, in conjunction with the
   eastward translation of a closed circulation over the Southwest. By
   the end of the period, broad cyclonic flow is forecast to be
   established over much of the contiguous US.

   ...Desert Southwest to southern/central High Plains...
   Late this weekend into early next week, enhanced west/southwesterly
   low/mid-level flow will be in place over much of the region. The
   combination of downward momentum transfer and a tightened pressure
   gradient from lee troughing will support sustained winds over 20 mph
   in many locations D3/Sun-D4/Mon. Additionally, deep diurnal mixing
   and downslope trajectories will yield RH values below 15% from parts
   of the Desert Southwest northeastward to the High Plains. With fuels
   remaining quite dry, areas of critical concerns appear likely both
   days. Therefore, 70% areas have been maintained/introduced where
   ensemble guidance suggests a higher potential for critical

   After D4/Monday, the spatial extent and magnitude of fire-weather
   concerns should gradually trend downward, in tandem with a southward
   sinking cold front over the Plains. Nonetheless, some potential for
   higher concerns may remain from far southern AZ/NM to west Texas,
   and the ongoing 40% for D5/Tue has been maintained, albeit focused
   southward (ahead of the front). Thereafter, while a potential for
   elevated/critical concerns may persist over parts of southern New
   Mexico and far west Texas, uncertainty regarding the timing/location
   of associated impulses/speed maxima is too large for highlights at
   this time.

   ..Picca.. 03/23/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: March 23, 2018
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