Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
PDF. Note: Starting June 25, 2013, the SPC will issue Experimental Dry Thunderstorm Fire
Weather Outlooks for Days 4 through 8 with individual web graphics.
Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Day 3-8 Fire Weather Categorical Outlooks (D3-8 FW Categorical).
Scalloped areas (in Day3-8 graphics)/dashed areas (in individual day graphics) will indicate areas where the combination
of numerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, generally less than one-tenth inch of rain and dry fuels are forecast.
Please read the Product Description Document (PDD),
Public Information Notice (PNS),
and provide feedback using this link:
The experiment will end on July 30, 2013 and a decision will be made whether to proceed with testing,
revise the test, or continue on the path to operational production. Note: Starting on June 5, 2012 to January 30, 2013, SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic
Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Day 3 to 8 with individual web graphics.
Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind)
Fire Weather Outlooks.
Please read the
Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link:
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 312017
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
VALID 021200Z - 081200Z
IN THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN CONUS INTO
EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN. THIS WILL GIVE
WAY TO A MULTI-STREAM...GENERALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK...AS OCCASIONAL PERTURBATIONS MOVE ONSHORE
FROM THE E PACIFIC. WITH SUFFICIENT SUBTROPICAL AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE COVERING PORTIONS OF THE WRN STATES...THESE DISTURBANCES
WILL REINFORCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WEST -- AIDED BY DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE DRY...WITH
LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE EDGES OF
RAIN CORES. HOWEVER...IN ADDITION TO LOW PREDICTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATIONS...MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WILL STRONGLY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN AREAS WHERE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE.
ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY LIMITED STORM MOTIONS AND PW VALUES OVER
0.75 INCH COULD SUPPORT STORMS WITH WETTING RAINS IN MANY AREAS. AS
SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS
TIME FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH ARE
NOT FORECAST TO COMBINE IN SUPPORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT