Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on May 17, 2013
Updated: Fri May 17 20:58:03 UTC 2013 (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
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PDF. Note: Starting on June 5, 2012 to January 30, 2013, SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic
Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Day 3 to 8 with individual web graphics.
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Fire Weather Outlooks.
Please read the
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http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
El Paso, TX...Albuquerque, NM...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...
D3
Sun, May 19, 2013 - Mon, May 20, 2013
D6
Wed, May 22, 2013 - Thu, May 23, 2013
D4
Mon, May 20, 2013 - Tue, May 21, 2013
D7
Thu, May 23, 2013 - Fri, May 24, 2013
D5
Tue, May 21, 2013 - Wed, May 22, 2013
D8
Fri, May 24, 2013 - Sat, May 25, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 172056
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
VALID 191200Z - 251200Z
AS THE DAY 3-8 PERIOD BEGINS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST
WILL BE SLOWLY ADVANCING EWD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION. BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK...THE
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ONE MODEL LIFTS
THE SYSTEM OUT TO THE NORTHEAST/GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE ANOTHER
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF AND MOVING LITTLE...JUST SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
ON DAYS 3/4 SUN/MON...THE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS AND THIS
ALONG WITH THE DRY/WARM CONDITIONS AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY FOR ERN NM AND WRN TX AND
A LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.
FOR DAYS 5/6 TUE/WED...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ALONG WITH MORE MODERATE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRYING OF
FUELS.
FOR DAYS 7/8 THUR/FRI...WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROUGH INTO THE
WEST...THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT WINDY/WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ARIZONA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGING BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...PRIMARILY THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH SLOWING DOWN BECAUSE OF
THE PERSISTENCE OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH/LOW...WILL ONLY CALL FOR
SOME ELEVATED CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
..BOTHWELL.. 05/17/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
$$
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
weather.gov 
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