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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 28, 2015
Updated: Sat Mar 28 20:43:02 UTC 2015  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Mon, Mar 30, 2015 - Tue, Mar 31, 2015 D6Thu, Apr 02, 2015 - Fri, Apr 03, 2015
D4Tue, Mar 31, 2015 - Wed, Apr 01, 2015 D7Fri, Apr 03, 2015 - Sat, Apr 04, 2015
D5Wed, Apr 01, 2015 - Thu, Apr 02, 2015 D8Sat, Apr 04, 2015 - Sun, Apr 05, 2015
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282041

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

   VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

   A GENERALLY ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PERIOD IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
   EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER SYSTEMS MOVE EWD
   FROM THE WRN CONUS AND STRONG SWLY LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
   THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

   ...GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   BEGINNING ON D4/TUE...STRONGER LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
   SPREAD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE FROM
   THE ERN PACIFIC. ELEVATED CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
   OF NV/UT AND NRN AZ...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS APPEARS TOO LOW FOR ANY DELINEATION ON D4/TUE. 

   ON D5/WED-D7/FRI...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO
   AMPLIFY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC COAST AND MOVES EWD.
   STRONG WSWLY FLOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN INTO
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING
   THIS PERIOD SOMEWHERE FROM NERN AZ INTO NM AND PERHAPS INTO THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS. NO CRITICAL AREAS WERE DELINEATED DUE TO LINGERING
   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...BUT 40
   PERCENT PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. 

   FOR D8/SAT...PREDICTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE REGARDING THE EXTENT OF
   LINGERING MODERATE/STRONG WSWLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THERE
   IS SOME INDICATION THAN ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
   WEST. PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED FOR NEXT WEEKEND IF
   MODEL TRENDS PERSIST.

   ...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
   ON D3/MON...ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS KS INTO SRN NEB...WITH SUSTAINED
   WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT EXPECTED.
   NO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED OWING TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE
   IN SUFFICIENT DURATION OF CRITICALLY LOW RH. 

   ON D5/WED...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A STRONG
   SFC LOW MOVING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AS
   AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. ELEVATED TO
   POTENTIALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A DRY AND WINDY POSTFRONTAL REGIME. 40
   PERCENT PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED IN THIS AREA...WITH THE
   MAIN UNCERTAINTY BEING THE EXTENT OF SUFFICIENTLY WARM CONDITIONS
   FOR CRITICALLY LOW RH.

   ..DEAN.. 03/28/2015

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: March 28, 2015
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