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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 27, 2017
Updated: Thu Apr 27 20:54:02 UTC 2017  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sat, Apr 29, 2017 - Sun, Apr 30, 2017 D6Tue, May 02, 2017 - Wed, May 03, 2017
D4Sun, Apr 30, 2017 - Mon, May 01, 2017 D7Wed, May 03, 2017 - Thu, May 04, 2017
D5Mon, May 01, 2017 - Tue, May 02, 2017 D8Thu, May 04, 2017 - Fri, May 05, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 272052

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

   Valid 291200Z - 051200Z

   An upper trough/low should be centered over the Four Corners region
   Saturday morning, and is then forecast to move eastward across the
   Plains on Day 4/Sunday, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest by Day
   5/Monday. Enhanced mid-level winds associated with this upper
   trough/low will remain over parts of the Southwest and southern
   Plains through Day 4/Sunday, and will elevate fire weather concerns
   across these areas.

   Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement depicting
   amplification of an upper ridge over the western CONUS and eastern
   Pacific from Day 5/Monday through the end of the forecast period.
   Another upper trough should develop southeastward from the
   northern/central Rockies into the Plains and eventually the MS
   Valley in the same time frame.

   ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: Portions of the Southwest and
   Southern Plains...
   Strong/gusty winds and lowered RH values should develop on Day
   3/Saturday across portions of the Southwest into the southern Plains
   as enhanced mid-level winds remain across these regions. A
   40%/marginal area has been maintained with no changes. Uncertainty
   remains regarding RH values falling below 15% on a widespread basis,
   which precludes higher probabilities at this time.

   By Day 4/Sunday, the enhanced mid-level winds associated with the
   previously mentioned northeastward-moving upper trough will
   overspread mainly west TX to deep south TX along the Rio Grande. A
   40%/marginal area has been continued with no changes across this
   region as gusty northwesterly winds should develop, with limited
   confidence in the occurrence of both sustained winds above 20 mph
   and critically lowered RH values precluding a 70%/critical area.

   For Day 5/Monday and beyond, weaker mid-level flow is forecast over
   the Southwest and southern Plains, which should tend to limit the
   prospect for widespread critical fire weather conditions. Therefore,
   no probabilities have been included in this time frame.

   ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: Portions of the FL Peninsula...
   A relatively dry low-level airmass is forecast to remain across much
   of the FL peninsula through at least Day 4/Sunday in the wake of a
   prior frontal intrusion. RH values may fall near to/below critical
   thresholds each afternoon across interior portions of the FL
   peninsula. However, forecast wind speeds do not appear sufficiently
   strong to support widespread critical fire weather conditions any
   day, which continues to preclude the introduction of 40%/marginal
   probabilities.

   ..Gleason.. 04/27/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: April 27, 2017
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