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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on May 23, 2013
Updated: Thu May 23 20:38:03 UTC 2013  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Starting on June 5, 2012 to January 30, 2013, SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Day 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
D3-8 FW Categorical D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Prob. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 83,005 792,305 Flagstaff, AZ...St. George, UT...Farmington, NM...Gallup, NM...Tuba City, AZ...
D3Sat, May 25, 2013 - Sun, May 26, 2013 D6Tue, May 28, 2013 - Wed, May 29, 2013
D4Sun, May 26, 2013 - Mon, May 27, 2013 D7Wed, May 29, 2013 - Thu, May 30, 2013
D5Mon, May 27, 2013 - Tue, May 28, 2013 D8Thu, May 30, 2013 - Fri, May 31, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 232036

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

   VALID 251200Z - 311200Z

   ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH TIME...THE OVERALL TREND OF
   THE MODELS IS TO BUILD AN EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WITH A WEST COAST
   TROUGH ADVANCING EWD.  THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IS IN THE INTENSITY AND
   SPEED OF THIS WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH.  MOST OF ARIZONA AND THE
   WESTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM/HOT AND DRY
   WITH EPISODIC PERIODS IN INCREASED AFTERNOON SWLY WINDS.  THE AREA
   REMAINS IN LONG TERM DROUGHT WITH VERY DRY FUELS.  SOME
   PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON DAYS 3-4/SAT-SUN ACROSS THE EASTERN
   ONE/THIRD OF NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. 

   MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DAY 3/SAT WITH A CRITICAL
   AREA ACROSS NRN AZ/NW NM/SW CO AND SRN UT FOR STRONG SWLY WINDS/WARM
   CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY.  SURROUNDING THIS AREA WILL BE AN AREA
   OF ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS WITH LESSER WIND SPEED EXPECTED.  

   FROM DAYS 4-8/SUN-THUR...SOME PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT WILL EXIST.  HOWEVER...BASED ON MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
   ADVANCING WEST COAST TROUGH...CANNOT HIGHLIGHT ANY CRITICAL AREA IN
   THE SOUTHWEST AFTER DAY 3.  PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND THE WESTERN HALF
   OF NEW MEXICO WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS.

   ..BOTHWELL.. 05/23/2013

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: May 23, 2013
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