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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 17, 2014
Updated: Thu Apr 17 20:39:03 UTC 2014  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Starting June 25, 2013, the SPC will issue Experimental Dry Thunderstorm Fire Weather Outlooks for Days 4 through 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Day 3-8 Fire Weather Categorical Outlooks (D3-8 FW Categorical). Scalloped areas (in Day3-8 graphics)/dashed areas (in individual day graphics) will indicate areas where the combination of numerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, generally less than one-tenth inch of rain and dry fuels are forecast. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD), Public Information Notice (PNS), and provide feedback using this link: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=DTFWO. The experiment will end on July 30, 2013 and a decision will be made whether to proceed with testing, revise the test, or continue on the path to operational production.
Note: Starting on June 5, 2012 to January 30, 2013, SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Day 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
D3-8 FW Categorical D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Prob. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D6 72,639 868,016 Flagstaff, AZ...St. George, UT...Prescott, AZ...Gallup, NM...Payson, AZ...
D7 243,780 5,009,295 El Paso, TX...Albuquerque, NM...Tucson, AZ...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...
D3Sat, Apr 19, 2014 - Sun, Apr 20, 2014 D6Tue, Apr 22, 2014 - Wed, Apr 23, 2014
D4Sun, Apr 20, 2014 - Mon, Apr 21, 2014 D7Wed, Apr 23, 2014 - Thu, Apr 24, 2014
D5Mon, Apr 21, 2014 - Tue, Apr 22, 2014 D8Thu, Apr 24, 2014 - Fri, Apr 25, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 172037

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

   VALID 191200Z - 251200Z

   THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL COME WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
   THAT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
   THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD TO THE CNTRL CONUS THROUGH
   MID-WEEK AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
   THIS FLOW WILL OVERLIE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS TO ENHANCE THE FIRE
   WEATHER RISK FROM THE SWRN STATES AND THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN TO THE
   CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE AREAS OF DRY FUELS EXIST.

   ...D5/MON...
   INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NV TO PARTS OF SERN CA AND NWRN AZ
   WILL SUPPORT SOME STRENGTHENING OF SFC WINDS AMIDST LOW RH TO
   ELEVATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY
   STRONG WINDS IS TOO LIMITED FOR A CRITICAL AREA.

   ...D6/TUE...
   THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
   OFFERS INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT A BAND OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
   WILL EMERGE OVER THE COLORADO PLATEAU AND VICINITY TO GENERATE
   STRONG SFC WINDS AMIDST LOW RH. THIS WARRANTS CRITICAL DESIGNATION
   FOR NRN/CNTRL AZ AND VICINITY. THE FIRE WEATHER RISK MAY ALSO BE
   HEIGHTENED ELSEWHERE FROM PORTIONS OF THE SWRN STATES AND CNTRL
   GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
   STRONG WINDS IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
   CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD ENSUE NORTH OF THE CRITICAL
   AREA INTO PORTIONS OF UT AND WRN CO...THOUGH THE LIMITED
   AVAILABILITY OF FAVORABLY DRY FUELS FOR FIRE SPREAD PRECLUDES
   CRITICAL DELINEATION.

   ...D7/WED...
   A BROADER AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AS
   THE STRONGER FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS
   THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS...ENCOURAGING LEE
   CYCLOGENESIS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM ERN
   AZ EWD TO PARTS OF W TX...AND THE WRN OK PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS
   PORTIONS OF WRN KS AND ERN CO.

   ...D8/THU...
   THERE WILL REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRE WEATHER RISK TO REMAIN
   ENHANCED OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AS STRONG FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE
   TROUGH POTENTIALLY LINGERS AMIDST LOW RH. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS THAT THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   ERN NM AND W TX...WHERE A MARGINAL AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
   HOWEVER...RELATIVELY GREATER DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS
   REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AT THIS TIME DIMINISHES
   CONFIDENCE IN THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK...PRECLUDING CRITICAL
   DELINEATION.

   ..COHEN.. 04/17/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: April 17, 2014
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