Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
PDF. Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics.
Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks.
Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
El Paso, TX...Pueblo, CO...Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...
Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Clovis, NM...Carlsbad, NM...
Sun, Mar 25, 2018 - Mon, Mar 26, 2018
Wed, Mar 28, 2018 - Thu, Mar 29, 2018
Mon, Mar 26, 2018 - Tue, Mar 27, 2018
Thu, Mar 29, 2018 - Fri, Mar 30, 2018
Tue, Mar 27, 2018 - Wed, Mar 28, 2018
Fri, Mar 30, 2018 - Sat, Mar 31, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 232042
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
Valid 251200Z - 311200Z
The mid-level pattern will remain relatively amplified late this
weekend into next week. Initially, deep cyclonic flow over the
western US will place much of the Desert Southwest and Plains under
considerable southwesterly flow aloft, impacting fire-weather
concerns (see section below). The trough axis will gradually advance
eastward towards the Plains next week, in conjunction with the
eastward translation of a closed circulation over the Southwest. By
the end of the period, broad cyclonic flow is forecast to be
established over much of the contiguous US.
...Desert Southwest to southern/central High Plains...
Late this weekend into early next week, enhanced west/southwesterly
low/mid-level flow will be in place over much of the region. The
combination of downward momentum transfer and a tightened pressure
gradient from lee troughing will support sustained winds over 20 mph
in many locations D3/Sun-D4/Mon. Additionally, deep diurnal mixing
and downslope trajectories will yield RH values below 15% from parts
of the Desert Southwest northeastward to the High Plains. With fuels
remaining quite dry, areas of critical concerns appear likely both
days. Therefore, 70% areas have been maintained/introduced where
ensemble guidance suggests a higher potential for critical
After D4/Monday, the spatial extent and magnitude of fire-weather
concerns should gradually trend downward, in tandem with a southward
sinking cold front over the Plains. Nonetheless, some potential for
higher concerns may remain from far southern AZ/NM to west Texas,
and the ongoing 40% for D5/Tue has been maintained, albeit focused
southward (ahead of the front). Thereafter, while a potential for
elevated/critical concerns may persist over parts of southern New
Mexico and far west Texas, uncertainty regarding the timing/location
of associated impulses/speed maxima is too large for highlights at
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT