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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 232147
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018
Valid 251200Z - 311200Z
A closed mid-level trough is forecast to move over California and
into the Great Basin on Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday. This feature
is likely to slow down and stall out over the Great Basin on Day
4/Saturday - Day 6/Monday. Latest forecast guidance shows the closed
mid-level trough weakening and becoming an open wave as it slowly
moves north-northeast Day 6/Monday - Day 7/Tuesday with broad
southwesterly flow developing aloft over the western US through the
end of the outlook period.
...Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday: Southern Great Basin and
Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Day 3/Friday
across far southern Nevada, far southwestern Utah, and northern
Arizona as stronger boundary layer winds develop. With receptive
fuels in the area, an attendant 40% probability was included. Near
critical fire weather conditions are possible farther north across
southern/central Nevada and southern/western Utah, but ERCs are at
or below average and dead fuel moisture values are at or above
average, which precludes from introducing any probabilities at this
Latest model guidance is trending towards widespread elevated to
critical fire weather conditions across southern/eastern Utah,
western Colorado, northern Arizona, and western New Mexico on Day
4/Saturday. A 70% probability has been introduced across parts of
northeastern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico where the strongest
winds/lowest RH are most likely to develop. Lee troughing across the
southern High Plains could yield critical fire weather conditions,
but recent rainfall/green-up and uncertainty regarding the
strength/location of the surface low precludes introducing any
probabilities for this area on Day 4/Saturday.
...Day 5/Sunday - Day 8/Wednesday: Southwest into the Southern High
Widespread near critical fire weather conditions are likely to
develop over eastern Arizona, most of New Mexico, and southern
Colorado on Day 5/Sunday. There is some model disagreement regarding
where the closed mid-level trough will stall out over the Great
Basin, which will affect the location/strength of lee troughing
across the southern High Plains. Given this uncertainty and the
aforementioned recent rainfall/green-up in the area, an upgrade was
not warranted for Day 5/Sunday.
The Southwest and southern High Plains should remain dry and breezy
through the forecast period, but widespread critical fire weather
conditions are not currently anticipated on Day 6/Monday - Day
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT