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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 3, 2015
Updated: Mon Aug 3 20:06:02 UTC 2015  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Aug 05, 2015 - Thu, Aug 06, 2015 D6Sat, Aug 08, 2015 - Sun, Aug 09, 2015
D4Thu, Aug 06, 2015 - Fri, Aug 07, 2015 D7Sun, Aug 09, 2015 - Mon, Aug 10, 2015
D5Fri, Aug 07, 2015 - Sat, Aug 08, 2015 D8Mon, Aug 10, 2015 - Tue, Aug 11, 2015
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 032004

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0304 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

   VALID 051200Z - 111200Z

   AN AMPLIFIED...YET PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
   THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
   PROGRESSING THROUGH DRY AREAS OF THE WEST INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
   CONCERNS THERE.  A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
   ADJACENT PARTS OF CANADA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
   WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CONUS...ONLY TO BE
   REPLACED BY A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY ON D5/FRI.
    A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
   ROCKIES ON D4/THU...THEN WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS ON D5/FRI.  YET ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER
   CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA ON D5/FRI AND MOVE EAST INTO UTAH BY
   D6/SAT...LEADING TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THERE.

   ...D3/WED: NORTH CENTRAL OREGON INTO SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...
   ELEVATED WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ATOP THE REGION IN
   ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER BRITISH
   COLUMBIA AT THE BEGINNING OF D3/WED.  INSOLATION AND DOWNWARD
   TRANSPORT OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL RESULT IN 10-15 MPH
   WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW /LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS/. 
   AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT
   WILL DROP TO AROUND 15-20 PERCENT.  THESE FACTORS SUGGEST AT LEAST A
   40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
   THE AREA...AND A DELINEATION HAS BEEN MADE TO ADDRESS THE THREAT.

   ...D5/FRI AND D6/SAT: PARTS OF NEVADA AND UTAH...
   AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN
   PACIFIC...TIGHTENING GEOPOTENTIAL/SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS
   THE REGION WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING FLOW AT ALL LEVELS AMIDST A
   RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CRITICAL SURFACE RH VALUES. 
   CONSISTENCY IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION /I.E.
   BREAKDOWN OF UPPER RIDGE/ YIELDS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CRITICAL
   ATMOSPHERIC FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS PARTS OF
   NEVADA ON D5/FRI...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER CONFIDENCE OF CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UTAH ON D6/SAT.  THE BIGGEST
   LIMITING FACTOR FOR A HIGHER FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THESE AREAS IS
   FUEL STATE...WHICH MAY ONLY BE MARGINALLY RECEPTIVE FOR FIRE GROWTH
   GIVEN ANTECEDENT RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS.  RELATIVELY LOW
   PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PARTS OF NEVADA ON D5/FRI
   WITH THE ANTICIPATION THAT FUTURE FORECASTS/MODEL CYCLES AND FUEL
   STATES WILL HELP CLARIFY THE FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO THERE.  

   THUNDERSTORMS /SOME DRY/ ARE ALSO LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
   GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT ALONG WITH 40+ KNOT MID-LEVEL
   FLOW.  A DRY THUNDER DELINEATION HAS ALSO BEEN MADE FOR NORTHERN
   NEVADA ON D5/FRI TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

   ..COOK.. 08/03/2015

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: August 03, 2015
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