Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point.
Scalloped line is a Critical Area - 40%
Dashed line is a Marginal Area - 10%
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point.
Solid line is a Critical Area - 70%
Dashed line is a Marginal Area - 40%
| D3 | Tue, Feb 14, 2012 - Wed, Feb 15, 2012 | D6 | Fri, Feb 17, 2012 - Sat, Feb 18, 2012 |
| D4 | Wed, Feb 15, 2012 - Thu, Feb 16, 2012 | D7 | Sat, Feb 18, 2012 - Sun, Feb 19, 2012 |
| D5 | Thu, Feb 16, 2012 - Fri, Feb 17, 2012 | D8 | Sun, Feb 19, 2012 - Mon, Feb 20, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 122018 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2012 VALID 141200Z - 201200Z CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DURING THE DAY 3-8 PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE LARGER DISCREPANCIES BEGIN DEVELOPING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL...A MEAN WESTERN TROUGH IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY/DAY 3 WITH AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS EWD THROUGH DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NM/WRN TX INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WHILE THE INITIAL AIR MASS WILL NOT BE OVERLY DRY ON DAY 3...BY DAY 4 PW VALUES LOOK TO FALL BELOW 0.20 INCHES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 60. AS A LEE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EWD ACROSS NRN OK...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND S/SWWD INTO WRN TX AND SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO DAY 4 AND ONLY MARGINALLY LOW RH/WIND SPEED CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST WILL BE SHORT LIVED DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER SERIES OF TROUGHS/UPPER LOWS HEAD TOWARD THE PAC NW AND PROGRESS S/SEWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ..LEITMAN.. 02/12/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT