Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jun 27, 2012

Updated: Wed Jun 27 21:28:02 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 27, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 27, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 27, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 27, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 27, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 27, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 27, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Fri, Jun 29, 2012 - Sat, Jun 30, 2012 D6Mon, Jul 02, 2012 - Tue, Jul 03, 2012
D4Sat, Jun 30, 2012 - Sun, Jul 01, 2012 D7Tue, Jul 03, 2012 - Wed, Jul 04, 2012
D5Sun, Jul 01, 2012 - Mon, Jul 02, 2012 D8Wed, Jul 04, 2012 - Thu, Jul 05, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 272126
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0426 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
   
   VALID 291200Z - 051200Z
   
   FOR DAYS 3-4/FRI-SAT...SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
   LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING HOT/DRY CONDITIONS.
   MAIN BAND OF WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NRN PART
   OF THE U.S.  ON SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE NW AND
   AS SUCH...FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND
   HAVE A MARGINAL AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT NO CRITICAL AREA AS YET.
   
   AFTER SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
   TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AND THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TROUGH
   PLACEMENT/SPEED/MOVEMENT OVER THE NWRN/NCNTRL STATES.  ANY LARGE
   WIND/RH THREAT FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK SEEMS DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME. 
   WITH THE EXTREME HEAT AND WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT
   LOW AFTERNOON RH...THERE COULD BE LOCAL FIRE WEATHER
   PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR EXISTING FIRES.
   
   NO LARGE SCALE DRY THUNDERSTORM AREAS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
   TIME...HOWEVER ACROSS PARTS OF AZ/NM INTO ERN UT/AND MUCH OF
   CO...THERE WILL BE MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME WILL BE A
   MIX OF WET AND DRY.  LIGHTNING OUTSIDE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM RAIN
   SHAFTS COULD START NEW FIRES AND STORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF
   EXISTING FIRES WOULD PRODUCE ERRATIC WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORM
   OUTFLOW.
   
   ..BOTHWELL.. 06/27/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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