Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jul 5, 2012

Updated: Thu Jul 5 21:24:05 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 5, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 5, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 5, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 5, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 5, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 5, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 5, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sat, Jul 07, 2012 - Sun, Jul 08, 2012 D6Tue, Jul 10, 2012 - Wed, Jul 11, 2012
D4Sun, Jul 08, 2012 - Mon, Jul 09, 2012 D7Wed, Jul 11, 2012 - Thu, Jul 12, 2012
D5Mon, Jul 09, 2012 - Tue, Jul 10, 2012 D8Thu, Jul 12, 2012 - Fri, Jul 13, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 052122
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0422 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2012
   
   VALID 071200Z - 131200Z
   
   A LARGE RIDGE...CENTERED OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AT
   THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WWD...BECOMING
   CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY EARLY D4/SUN. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
   MEDIUM RANGE MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ AND THE MREF SYSTEM ARE IN VERY
   GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH D7/WED ON THE WWD MOVEMENT AND AMPLIFICATION
   OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS PATTERN RESULTS IN A FAVORABLE
   PATTERN FOR TSTMS FROM NRN CA NWD INTO THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
   REGION. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN...A MEAN TROUGH
   WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ERN CONUS...INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
   AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES /PARTICULARLY OVER THE NE
   STATES/ AND INCREASE DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE STATES.
   OVERALL...WITH THE LARGE RIDGE IN PLACE...THE PATTERN DOES NOT
   APPEAR TO SUPPORT A LARGE-SCALE...PRIMARILY WIND-DRIVEN FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT DURING THE PERIOD. MOST THREATS WOULD LIKELY BE A RESULT OF
   LIGHTNING IGNITIONS.
   
   LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF NRN ROCKIES ON D3/SAT AND D4/SUN. MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS
   LOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL MIXED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 20 TO 25
   PERCENT. GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS W-CNTRL MT ON
   D3/SAT AND ACROSS CNTRL ID ON D4/SUN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
   DELINEATE A MARGINAL THREAT OVER THESE LOCATIONS. ANOTHER SURGE OF
   MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER W TX ON
   D1/THU...IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO SRN CA BY
   EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF DIURNAL TSTMS.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 07/05/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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