Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jul 22, 2012

Updated: Sun Jul 22 21:03:02 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 22, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 22, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 22, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 22, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 22, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 22, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 22, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Tue, Jul 24, 2012 - Wed, Jul 25, 2012 D6Fri, Jul 27, 2012 - Sat, Jul 28, 2012
D4Wed, Jul 25, 2012 - Thu, Jul 26, 2012 D7Sat, Jul 28, 2012 - Sun, Jul 29, 2012
D5Thu, Jul 26, 2012 - Fri, Jul 27, 2012 D8Sun, Jul 29, 2012 - Mon, Jul 30, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 222101
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012
   
   VALID 241200Z - 301200Z
   
   DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
   THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BECOME
   REESTABLISHED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AFTER A TEMPORARY
   WEAKENING IN THE DAY 1-2 PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN HOT AND
   DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE IS LESS
   AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES FROM THE
   PACIFIC EXPECTED TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE...BUT IN GENERAL IT APPEARS
   THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE OF THESE FEATURES OVER THE WEST WILL BE NEAR
   AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL WIND/RH
   SHOULD BE RATHER LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A LOW-END DRY
   THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NRN GREAT
   BASIN/ROCKIES DUE TO DIURNAL CONVECTION.
   
   ...DRY TSTM POTENTIAL...NRN GREAT BASIN...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...NRN
   ROCKIES...
   UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE...STRONG HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE
   RATES WILL SUPPORT WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
   THREAT OF DIURNAL HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN
   EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY BY D5/THU. LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT
   SPREADS AND MARGINALLY DRY PW VALUES BETWEEN 0.6-1 INCHES WILL
   RESULT IN SOME THREAT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT
   AT THIS TIME COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
   THRESHOLDS.
   
   ...WIND/RH POTENTIAL...
   WITH STRONGEST LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW LIKELY TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE
   NORTH OF THE HOT/DRY AIRMASS...THE THREAT FOR WIND-DRIVEN CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW DURING THE PERIOD. TWO POSSIBLE
   EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN AREAS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND
   ROCKIES...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST FLOW...AND IN AREAS OF THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS DUE TO TRANSIENT INCREASES IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE
   TO UPPER SYSTEMS PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DUE TO
   UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL AND TIMING OF SUCH CONDITIONS...NO
   WIND-DRIVEN PROBABILITIES WERE INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK.
   
   ..DEAN.. 07/22/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT