Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Oct 3, 2012

Updated: Wed Oct 3 20:50:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 3, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 3, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 3, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 3, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 3, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 3, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 3, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Fri, Oct 05, 2012 - Sat, Oct 06, 2012 D6Mon, Oct 08, 2012 - Tue, Oct 09, 2012
D4Sat, Oct 06, 2012 - Sun, Oct 07, 2012 D7Tue, Oct 09, 2012 - Wed, Oct 10, 2012
D5Sun, Oct 07, 2012 - Mon, Oct 08, 2012 D8Wed, Oct 10, 2012 - Thu, Oct 11, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 032048
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT WED OCT 03 2012
   
   VALID 051200Z - 111200Z
   
   MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING A
   LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
   WEEK. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
   NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHEAST...WITH A SERIES OF COLD
   FRONTS EXPECTED TO BRING A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS TO MUCH OF THE
   GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST. BY THIS WEEKEND...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
   DRIFT EWD TOWARDS THE PACIFIC COAST...AND IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A
   REPRIEVE FROM THE HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
   
   ...FRI/D3 -- PORTIONS OF NM...NERN AZ...
   A WEAK LEE SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN NM AS AN UPPER
   DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THE TIGHTENING
   PRESSURE GRADIENT...ALONG WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING BENEATH
   MODERATELY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW...WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   OF 15-20 MPH. RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE MID-TEENS WILL YIELD AN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM AND INTO NERN AZ.
   
   ...FRI/D3 -- NWRN ORE...
   SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ELY
   WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND PARTS OF NWRN ORE. WIND SPEEDS
   ARE FORECAST STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 MPH...WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS
   EXCEPTIONALLY DRY BUT COOL. CURRENT FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE
   INDICATES THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN SHY OF CRITICAL
   THRESHOLDS...BUT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY STILL DEVELOP.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 10/03/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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