Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Oct 4, 2012

Updated: Thu Oct 4 20:19:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 4, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 4, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 4, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 4, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 4, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 4, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 4, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sat, Oct 06, 2012 - Sun, Oct 07, 2012 D6Tue, Oct 09, 2012 - Wed, Oct 10, 2012
D4Sun, Oct 07, 2012 - Mon, Oct 08, 2012 D7Wed, Oct 10, 2012 - Thu, Oct 11, 2012
D5Mon, Oct 08, 2012 - Tue, Oct 09, 2012 D8Thu, Oct 11, 2012 - Fri, Oct 12, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 042017
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012
   
   VALID 061200Z - 121200Z
   
   LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
   TRAVERSING EWD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
   MAINTAIN A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS
   AND MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LARGE
   PACIFIC CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD...AND IS FORECAST TO
   BE POSITIONED NEAR THE SRN CA COAST BY WED/D7...WITH WEAK UPPER
   RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
   MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHWEST...MITIGATING FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF
   NEXT WEEK.
   
   ...SAT/D3 -- S-CNTRL WA...N-CNTRL/NWRN ORE...
   A WEAKENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR AS SFC HIGH
   PRESSURE BECOMES REPOSITIONED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES.
   THUS...SLIGHTLY WEAKER ELY WINDS /COMPARED TO FRI/D2/ ARE FORECAST
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NWRN ORE AND S-CNTRL WA /INCLUDING THE
   COLUMBIA GORGE/. A PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD RH
   VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY
   GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED PASSES AND
   MOUNTAIN RIDGE TOPS.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 10/04/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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