Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Oct 6, 2012

Updated: Sat Oct 6 20:29:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 6, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 6, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 6, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 6, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 6, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 6, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 6, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Mon, Oct 08, 2012 - Tue, Oct 09, 2012 D6Thu, Oct 11, 2012 - Fri, Oct 12, 2012
D4Tue, Oct 09, 2012 - Wed, Oct 10, 2012 D7Fri, Oct 12, 2012 - Sat, Oct 13, 2012
D5Wed, Oct 10, 2012 - Thu, Oct 11, 2012 D8Sat, Oct 13, 2012 - Sun, Oct 14, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 062027
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2012
   
   VALID 081200Z - 141200Z
   
   THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A LARGE MEAN TROUGH OVER A
   SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
   THE PERIOD. ON D3/MON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
   CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE MEAN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SEWD FROM
   CNTRL CANADA AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. AN
   ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL LIKELY PROGRESS SEWD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH ACROSS SRN MB AND SWRN ONTARIO. THE INCREASED SFC PRESSURE
   GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
   POST-FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE...MIDWEST...AND E COAST
   WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED SWLY SFC WINDS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH AN ANTECEDENT DRY
   AIR MASS...WILL RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER THREAT /DISCUSSED IN
   MORE DETAIL BELOW/. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
   SLOWLY SWD ALONG THE CA COAST D3/MON THROUGH D5/WED. INTER-MODEL AND
   RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS SHOWN SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM D5/WED
   ONWARD. GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PAC
   NW ON D6/THU WILL ACT TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW EWD OVER SRN CA AND INTO
   THE WRN GREAT BASIN. SOME FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY RESULT FROM
   ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS INCREASED SFC WINDS BUT
   UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES INTRODUCING ANY DELINEATED AREAS. 
   
   ...ERN NEB...NWRN/NRN IA...SRN MN...W-CNTRL WI...
   MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SWLY WHILE INCREASING EARLY
   D3/MON MORNING...CONTRIBUTING TO SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
   ADVECTION. THIS WARM AIR SHOULD MIX DOWN AND CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN
   THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER
   TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT GIVEN THE
   GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO
   MERIT MUCH CONSIDERATION. THE DEPTH OF MIXING WILL ALSO HAVE A LARGE
   IMPACT ON SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS GUST STRENGTH/FREQUENCY
   WITH PRE-FRONTAL SWLY WINDS AOA FROM 15-25 MPH CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED. THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH WILL RESULT
   IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NWRN IA WITH ELEVATED
   CONDITIONS FROM ERN NEB NEWD INTO W-CNTRL WI.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 10/06/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT