Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Wed, Oct 10, 2012 - Thu, Oct 11, 2012 | D6 | Sat, Oct 13, 2012 - Sun, Oct 14, 2012 |
| D4 | Thu, Oct 11, 2012 - Fri, Oct 12, 2012 | D7 | Sun, Oct 14, 2012 - Mon, Oct 15, 2012 |
| D5 | Fri, Oct 12, 2012 - Sat, Oct 13, 2012 | D8 | Mon, Oct 15, 2012 - Tue, Oct 16, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 082052 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2012 VALID 101200Z - 161200Z AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A REX BLOCK WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE CA COAST...AND A LARGE HIGH ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC OCEAN. ON D3/WED...A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS BETWEEN A SFC HIGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...SOME MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ACROSS SRN WY /DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW/. THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NE PACIFIC OCEAN AND INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON D4/THU AND D5/FRI. CONSEQUENTLY...THE REX BLOCK BREAKS DOWNS...RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM D5/FRI THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE /WHICH HAS GOOD MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY/ INDICATES THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN CA ON D4/THU BEFORE BECOMING NEGATIVELY-TILTED AND EJECTING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...AND CNTRL PLAINS BY D6/SAT. DEEP SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES/CNTRL PLAINS...SUPPORTING STRONG SFC WINDS ACROSS NM/SRN PLAINS ON D5/FRI AND SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY ON D6/SAT. BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY EXIST AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE ERN SEMICIRCLE...SUPPORTING AN ENHANCED GUST POTENTIAL COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONG SFC WINDS INDUCED BY THE SFC LOW. AS A RESULT...SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY EXIST IN THESE AREAS ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FUELS AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE STRONG WINDS PRECLUDES OUTLINING ANY RISK AREAS. ...D3/WED: SRN WY... A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED 15-2O MPH WLY WINDS AMIDST DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT. FUEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES FUELS ARE BECOMING LESS SUPPORTIVE OF FIRES BUT SEVERAL DRY AREAS STILL EXIST. GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND THE FUELS...THE FIRE WEATHER RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE ANY AREAS ATTM. ..MOSIER.. 10/08/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT