Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Oct 8, 2012

Updated: Mon Oct 8 20:54:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 8, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 8, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 8, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 8, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 8, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 8, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 8, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Wed, Oct 10, 2012 - Thu, Oct 11, 2012 D6Sat, Oct 13, 2012 - Sun, Oct 14, 2012
D4Thu, Oct 11, 2012 - Fri, Oct 12, 2012 D7Sun, Oct 14, 2012 - Mon, Oct 15, 2012
D5Fri, Oct 12, 2012 - Sat, Oct 13, 2012 D8Mon, Oct 15, 2012 - Tue, Oct 16, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 082052
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
   
   VALID 101200Z - 161200Z
   
   AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE
   CHARACTERIZED BY A REX BLOCK WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
   ERN CONUS...A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE CA COAST...AND A LARGE HIGH
   ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC OCEAN. ON D3/WED...A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
   GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS BETWEEN A SFC HIGH OVER
   THE MID MS VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AS A
   RESULT...SOME MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ACROSS SRN
   WY /DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW/.
   
   THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NE
   PACIFIC OCEAN AND INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON D4/THU AND D5/FRI.
   CONSEQUENTLY...THE REX BLOCK BREAKS DOWNS...RESULTING IN A MORE
   ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM D5/FRI THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE /WHICH HAS GOOD MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY/
   INDICATES THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN CA ON D4/THU
   BEFORE BECOMING NEGATIVELY-TILTED AND EJECTING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS
   THE SOUTHWEST...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...AND CNTRL PLAINS BY D6/SAT. DEEP
   SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES/CNTRL
   PLAINS...SUPPORTING STRONG SFC WINDS ACROSS NM/SRN PLAINS ON D5/FRI
   AND SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY ON D6/SAT. BELT OF STRONG
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY EXIST AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
   THE ERN SEMICIRCLE...SUPPORTING AN ENHANCED GUST POTENTIAL
   COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONG SFC WINDS INDUCED BY THE SFC LOW. AS A
   RESULT...SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY EXIST IN THESE AREAS
   ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FUELS AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE
   STRONG WINDS PRECLUDES OUTLINING ANY RISK AREAS.  
   
   ...D3/WED: SRN WY...
   A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED 15-2O MPH WLY
   WINDS AMIDST DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20
   PERCENT. FUEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES FUELS ARE BECOMING LESS
   SUPPORTIVE OF FIRES BUT SEVERAL DRY AREAS STILL EXIST. GIVEN THE
   MARGINAL NATURE OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND THE FUELS...THE
   FIRE WEATHER RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE ANY AREAS ATTM.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 10/08/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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