Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Thu, Oct 11, 2012 - Fri, Oct 12, 2012 | D6 | Sun, Oct 14, 2012 - Mon, Oct 15, 2012 |
| D4 | Fri, Oct 12, 2012 - Sat, Oct 13, 2012 | D7 | Mon, Oct 15, 2012 - Tue, Oct 16, 2012 |
| D5 | Sat, Oct 13, 2012 - Sun, Oct 14, 2012 | D8 | Tue, Oct 16, 2012 - Wed, Oct 17, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 092105 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0405 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012 VALID 111200Z - 171200Z REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN ON D3/THU WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN CA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW. THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY AND TRANSITION EWD. THE TRANSITION TO A ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA TO QUICKLY EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...CNTRL ROCKIES...AND CNTRL PLAINS BY D5/SAT. STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL SUPPORT A WET PATTERN FROM D4/FRI THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NEWD...DEEP SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES/CNTRL PLAINS ON D4/FRI...SUPPORTING STRONG SLY SFC WINDS ACROSS NM/SRN PLAINS. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER THREATS AND NO AREAS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED. THE SFC LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS ON D5/SAT...INDUCING STRONG SLY WINDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY AND STRONG NWLY WINDS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ERN CO AND WRN KS/NEB BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD PRECLUDES ANY HIGHLIGHTS. OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CHANCE OF A LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW. ..MOSIER.. 10/09/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT