Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Oct 9, 2012

Updated: Tue Oct 9 21:06:02 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 9, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 9, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 9, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 9, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 9, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 9, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 9, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Thu, Oct 11, 2012 - Fri, Oct 12, 2012 D6Sun, Oct 14, 2012 - Mon, Oct 15, 2012
D4Fri, Oct 12, 2012 - Sat, Oct 13, 2012 D7Mon, Oct 15, 2012 - Tue, Oct 16, 2012
D5Sat, Oct 13, 2012 - Sun, Oct 14, 2012 D8Tue, Oct 16, 2012 - Wed, Oct 17, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 092105
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0405 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
   
   VALID 111200Z - 171200Z
   
   REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN ON D3/THU WITH A LARGE
   CLOSED LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN CA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
   THE PACIFIC NW. THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY
   DEAMPLIFY AND TRANSITION EWD. THE TRANSITION TO A ZONAL PATTERN WILL
   ALLOW THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA TO QUICKLY EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE
   SOUTHWEST...CNTRL ROCKIES...AND CNTRL PLAINS BY D5/SAT. STRONG WLY
   FLOW ALOFT INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL SUPPORT A WET PATTERN FROM
   D4/FRI THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NEWD...DEEP SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED
   ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES/CNTRL PLAINS ON D4/FRI...SUPPORTING STRONG
   SLY SFC WINDS ACROSS NM/SRN PLAINS. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
   PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER THREATS
   AND NO AREAS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED. THE SFC LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
   MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS ON D5/SAT...INDUCING STRONG SLY
   WINDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY AND STRONG NWLY WINDS
   ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ERN CO AND WRN KS/NEB BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
   ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD
   PRECLUDES ANY HIGHLIGHTS. 
   
   OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CHANCE OF A
   LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 10/09/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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