Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Fri, Oct 12, 2012 - Sat, Oct 13, 2012 | D6 | Mon, Oct 15, 2012 - Tue, Oct 16, 2012 |
| D4 | Sat, Oct 13, 2012 - Sun, Oct 14, 2012 | D7 | Tue, Oct 16, 2012 - Wed, Oct 17, 2012 |
| D5 | Sun, Oct 14, 2012 - Mon, Oct 15, 2012 | D8 | Wed, Oct 17, 2012 - Thu, Oct 18, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 102122 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0422 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2012 VALID 121200Z - 181200Z A CLOSED LOW...OVER SRN CA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CNTRL ROCKIES...REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS BY D4/SAT AND CONTINUING NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THE BEGINNING OF D5/SUN. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES ON D3/FRI...INDUCING ENHANCED SLY WINDS ACROSS NM AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREATS. STRONG SLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT /DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW/. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS ON D4/SAT...AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. STRONG SLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...FROM CNTRL OK NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...WHILE MORE WLY/SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT PRECLUDES HIGHLIGHTING AN AREAS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND NE STATES AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES NEWD INTO SE ONTARIO BUT COOL TEMPERATURES AND MOIST FUELS PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ...D3/FRI: SERN ND/ERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA... COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH AND THAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UNCERTAINTY IS INTRODUCED BY THE DIFFERING MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GFS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A MOIST BIAS WHILE THE NAM EXHIBITS A DRY BIAS. THE SREF MEAN OFFERS A REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S AND RESULTANT RH VALUES AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND A MARGINAL THREAT AREA WAS DELINEATED. COOL TEMPERATURES PRECLUDE A CRITICAL RISK AREA. ..MOSIER.. 10/10/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT