Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Oct 10, 2012

Updated: Wed Oct 10 21:23:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 10, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 10, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 10, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 10, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 10, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 10, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 10, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Fri, Oct 12, 2012 - Sat, Oct 13, 2012 D6Mon, Oct 15, 2012 - Tue, Oct 16, 2012
D4Sat, Oct 13, 2012 - Sun, Oct 14, 2012 D7Tue, Oct 16, 2012 - Wed, Oct 17, 2012
D5Sun, Oct 14, 2012 - Mon, Oct 15, 2012 D8Wed, Oct 17, 2012 - Thu, Oct 18, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 102122
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0422 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
   
   VALID 121200Z - 181200Z
   
   A CLOSED LOW...OVER SRN CA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WILL
   EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CNTRL ROCKIES...REACHING THE
   CNTRL PLAINS BY D4/SAT AND CONTINUING NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES BY THE BEGINNING OF D5/SUN. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
   IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES ON D3/FRI...INDUCING ENHANCED SLY
   WINDS ACROSS NM AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION
   AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER
   THREATS. STRONG SLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
   A LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS
   MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT /DISCUSSED IN MORE
   DETAIL BELOW/. 
   
   AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS ON D4/SAT...AN
   ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. STRONG SLY
   WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...FROM CNTRL OK NEWD INTO
   THE MID MS VALLEY...WHILE MORE WLY/SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS
   WAKE. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION
   ALONG THE FRONT PRECLUDES HIGHLIGHTING AN AREAS AT THIS TIME.
   HOWEVER...SOME ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE
   PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
   VALLEY AND NE STATES AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES NEWD INTO SE
   ONTARIO BUT COOL TEMPERATURES AND MOIST FUELS PRECLUDE ANY FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.  
   
   ...D3/FRI: SERN ND/ERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA...
   COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PREVIOUSLY
   MENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SLY WINDS AROUND
   20-25 MPH AND THAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
   UNCERTAINTY IS INTRODUCED BY THE DIFFERING MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE GFS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A MOIST BIAS WHILE
   THE NAM EXHIBITS A DRY BIAS. THE SREF MEAN OFFERS A REASONABLE
   COMPROMISE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S AND RESULTANT RH VALUES
   AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT AND A MARGINAL THREAT AREA WAS DELINEATED. COOL
   TEMPERATURES PRECLUDE A CRITICAL RISK AREA.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 10/10/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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