Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Oct 14, 2012

Updated: Sun Oct 14 20:13:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 14, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 14, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 14, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 14, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 14, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 14, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 14, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Tue, Oct 16, 2012 - Wed, Oct 17, 2012 D6Fri, Oct 19, 2012 - Sat, Oct 20, 2012
D4Wed, Oct 17, 2012 - Thu, Oct 18, 2012 D7Sat, Oct 20, 2012 - Sun, Oct 21, 2012
D5Thu, Oct 18, 2012 - Fri, Oct 19, 2012 D8Sun, Oct 21, 2012 - Mon, Oct 22, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142011
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2012
   
   VALID 161200Z - 221200Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR SECTION HEADER
   
   FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
   PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP S AND E FROM THE NRN
   ROCKIES...DEEPENING ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY DAY 4/WED.
   THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH DAY
   8/SUN. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
   BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO POSITION OF
   DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW BEGINNING DAY 4/WED. REGARDLESS...VERY WINDY
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS ON WED
   AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN COOL WITH ONLY MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES EXPECTED. FURTHER
   WEST...A RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD FROM THE PACIFIC...MOVING INLAND BY
   DAY 5/THU. A CUTOFF LOW OFF BAJA WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER ELY FLOW
   ACROSS SRN CA ON DAY 4/WED BEFORE WEAKENING THU AND BECOMING WLY BY
   DAY 5/FRI. 
   
   ...SRN CA DAY 4/WED...
   OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST ON WEDNESDAY AS SFC
   TROUGH INCREASES ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S/SE FROM
   THE PAC NW TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
   HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF CA WHERE WINDS WILL BE
   MORE W/NWLY. A THERMAL RIDGE ALSO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ACROSS
   THE STATE...RESULTING IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S.
   DESPITE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES...WEAK
   DEEP LAYER WINDS AND THE OFFSET OF THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
   THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ONLY LIGHT OFFSHORE SFC WINDS. TRENDS WILL
   BE MONITORED OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR ANY INDICATIONS OF STRONGER
   THAN EXPECTED FLOW. GIVEN GREATER CONFIDENCE IN EXPECTED LIGHTER
   WINDS...HAVE REMOVED PROBS FOR WED.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 10/14/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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