Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 2, 2012

Updated: Fri Nov 2 21:38:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 2, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 2, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 2, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 2, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 2, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 2, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 2, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sun, Nov 04, 2012 - Mon, Nov 05, 2012 D6Wed, Nov 07, 2012 - Thu, Nov 08, 2012
D4Mon, Nov 05, 2012 - Tue, Nov 06, 2012 D7Thu, Nov 08, 2012 - Fri, Nov 09, 2012
D5Tue, Nov 06, 2012 - Wed, Nov 07, 2012 D8Fri, Nov 09, 2012 - Sat, Nov 10, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 022137
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0437 PM CDT FRI NOV 02 2012
   
   VALID 041200Z - 101200Z
   
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
   INITIAL WRN UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO A
   MARGINAL FIRE THREAT OVER COASTAL SRN CA THROUGH TUE/D4.
   
   MEANWHILE...BY TUE/D4...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGHS WILL
   PHASE TOGETHER OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION...LEADING TO THE
   EVENTUAL INTENSIFICATION OF A POSSIBLE NOR'EASTER THAT WILL PROGRESS
   UP THE ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO ERN CANADA BY FRIDAY. STRENGTHENING
   NWLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER
   THE SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT
   WED/D5-FRI/D7. 
   
   LATE IN THE EXTENDED...A BREAK DOWN OF THE WRN RIDGE IS
   EXPECTED...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
   ROCKIES SUPPORTING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT WARM
   AND DRY CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL CRITICAL
   DELINEATIONS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
   
   ..DISPIGNA.. 11/02/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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