Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 3, 2012

Updated: Sat Nov 3 21:11:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 3, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 3, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 3, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 3, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 3, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 3, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 3, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Mon, Nov 05, 2012 - Tue, Nov 06, 2012 D6Thu, Nov 08, 2012 - Fri, Nov 09, 2012
D4Tue, Nov 06, 2012 - Wed, Nov 07, 2012 D7Fri, Nov 09, 2012 - Sat, Nov 10, 2012
D5Wed, Nov 07, 2012 - Thu, Nov 08, 2012 D8Sat, Nov 10, 2012 - Sun, Nov 11, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 032109
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0409 PM CDT SAT NOV 03 2012
   
   VALID 051200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...SRN CA...
   WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE ONGOING ON MON/D3 ACROSS COASTAL SRN CA.
   A GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIMIT SUSTAINED
   WINDS TO 15 TO 25 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THROUGH FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS ALIGN WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 10
   PERCENT. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
   WIDESPREAD THAN ON SUNDAY. BY TUE/D4...THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
   WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A
   GRADUAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY.
   
   ...NRN/CNTRL FL...
   BY TUE/D4...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGHS WILL PHASE TOGETHER
   OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION...LEADING TO THE EVENTUAL
   INTENSIFICATION OF A POSSIBLE NOR'EASTER THAT WILL PROGRESS UP THE
   ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO ERN CANADA BY SATURDAY. MODEL FORECASTS HAVE
   SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
   RUNS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A LONGER PERIOD OF NWLY FLOW ADVECTING
   COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL MAINTAIN 40%
   HIGHLIGHTS FOR WED/D5-FRI/D7 FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL CONDITIONS ACROSS
   NRN/CNTRL FL AMIDST A NWLY FLOW REGIME.
   
   ...SOUTHWEST INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   LATE IN THE EXTENDED...A BREAK DOWN OF THE WRN RIDGE IS
   EXPECTED...WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
   MID-LATE WEEK. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND
   STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SEVERAL CRITICAL DELINEATIONS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
   
   ..DISPIGNA.. 11/03/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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