Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 4, 2012

Updated: Sun Nov 4 21:46:02 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Tue, Nov 06, 2012 - Wed, Nov 07, 2012 D6Fri, Nov 09, 2012 - Sat, Nov 10, 2012
D4Wed, Nov 07, 2012 - Thu, Nov 08, 2012 D7Sat, Nov 10, 2012 - Sun, Nov 11, 2012
D5Thu, Nov 08, 2012 - Fri, Nov 09, 2012 D8Sun, Nov 11, 2012 - Mon, Nov 12, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 042144
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012
   
   VALID 061200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...SOUTHWEST INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   ...INCREASING THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN FIRES BY MID-LATE WEEK...
   
   A BREAK DOWN OF THE WRN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...WITH A HIGHLY
   AMPLIFIED WRN TROUGH DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE WEEK. BY D4/WED...MODEST
   WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SWD OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
   ROCKIES...INDUCING A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND GUSTY SLY WINDS ACROSS
   ERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. WITH GRASSES BECOMING DORMANT AFTER A
   RECENT FREEZE AND AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS...AN ENHANCED FIRE
   THREAT IS POSSIBLE. BY D5/THU...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
   AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
   ALTHOUGH STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
   ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS...COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE A
   HIGHLIGHTED AREA AT THIS TIME. FARTHER TO THE S AND E...SWLY/WLY
   WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE
   CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AS WIDESPREAD SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR. STRONG
   WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EWD BY D6/FRI AS CYCLOGENESIS
   OCCURS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. BY D7/SAT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL
   PROGRESS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...BUT DOWNSLOPE WLYS MAY CONTINUE
   OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
   
   ...NRN/CNTRL FL...
   
   BY TUE/D3...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGHS WILL PHASE TOGETHER
   OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION...LEADING TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF
   A NOR'EASTER THAT WILL PROGRESS UP THE ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO ERN
   CANADA BY FRI/D6-SAT/D7. A COOL AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL
   ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR'EASTER...WITH AT
   LEAST A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT WED/D4 AMIDST POST-FRONTAL NWLYS.
   ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO NLY THEN ELY AND WEAKEN THROUGH
   FRI/D6 AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE EAST...DRY SURFACE
   CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS INTERIOR N FL...SUPPORTING A
   MARGINAL FIRE THREAT.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   
   TUE/D3...THE STAGNANT AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
   U.S. IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD AND BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE
   APPROACH OF A POTENT WRN TROUGH. GIVEN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS
   ACROSS SRN CA...ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
   REMAIN POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT A RETURN TO
   ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TERRAIN-INDUCED WIND GUSTS TO LOWER SUCH
   THAT A HIGHLIGHTED AREA IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..DISPIGNA.. 11/04/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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