Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Tue, Nov 06, 2012 - Wed, Nov 07, 2012 | D6 | Fri, Nov 09, 2012 - Sat, Nov 10, 2012 |
| D4 | Wed, Nov 07, 2012 - Thu, Nov 08, 2012 | D7 | Sat, Nov 10, 2012 - Sun, Nov 11, 2012 |
| D5 | Thu, Nov 08, 2012 - Fri, Nov 09, 2012 | D8 | Sun, Nov 11, 2012 - Mon, Nov 12, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 042144 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012 VALID 061200Z - 121200Z ...SOUTHWEST INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... ...INCREASING THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN FIRES BY MID-LATE WEEK... A BREAK DOWN OF THE WRN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN TROUGH DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE WEEK. BY D4/WED...MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SWD OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...INDUCING A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND GUSTY SLY WINDS ACROSS ERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. WITH GRASSES BECOMING DORMANT AFTER A RECENT FREEZE AND AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS...AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT IS POSSIBLE. BY D5/THU...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. ALTHOUGH STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS...COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE A HIGHLIGHTED AREA AT THIS TIME. FARTHER TO THE S AND E...SWLY/WLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AS WIDESPREAD SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR. STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EWD BY D6/FRI AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. BY D7/SAT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...BUT DOWNSLOPE WLYS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ...NRN/CNTRL FL... BY TUE/D3...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGHS WILL PHASE TOGETHER OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION...LEADING TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF A NOR'EASTER THAT WILL PROGRESS UP THE ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO ERN CANADA BY FRI/D6-SAT/D7. A COOL AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR'EASTER...WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT WED/D4 AMIDST POST-FRONTAL NWLYS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO NLY THEN ELY AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI/D6 AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE EAST...DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS INTERIOR N FL...SUPPORTING A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT. ...SRN CA... TUE/D3...THE STAGNANT AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD AND BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT WRN TROUGH. GIVEN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS SRN CA...ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TERRAIN-INDUCED WIND GUSTS TO LOWER SUCH THAT A HIGHLIGHTED AREA IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..DISPIGNA.. 11/04/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT