Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 5, 2012

Updated: Mon Nov 5 21:48:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 5, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 5, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 5, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 5, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 5, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 5, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 5, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Wed, Nov 07, 2012 - Thu, Nov 08, 2012 D6Sat, Nov 10, 2012 - Sun, Nov 11, 2012
D4Thu, Nov 08, 2012 - Fri, Nov 09, 2012 D7Sun, Nov 11, 2012 - Mon, Nov 12, 2012
D5Fri, Nov 09, 2012 - Sat, Nov 10, 2012 D8Mon, Nov 12, 2012 - Tue, Nov 13, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 052146
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
   
   VALID 071200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...SOUTHWEST AND CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   ...INCREASING THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN FIRES BY MID-LATE WEEK...
   
   A STRONG WRN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND QUICKLY PROGRESS EWD
   IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT THE WEST. 
   
   BY D3/WED...MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SWD OVER THE
   CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...INDUCING A BROAD LEE SURFACE TROUGH. IN
   RESPONSE...DOWNSLOPE WLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN WY...WHILE
   A SUBTLE STRENGTHENING OF SLY WINDS OCCURS OVER ERN NM AND THE TX
   PANHANDLE. 
   
   BY D4/THU...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   WINDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MODEL
   FORECASTS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY DRIER AREA WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS N
   CNTRL TX INTO S CNTRL OK WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20-25 MPH ARE
   POSSIBLE...BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
   VALUES/DURATION WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. 
   
   MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ON D5/6 FRI/SAT...BUT A SUBTLE
   INCREASE IN MOISTURE DUE TO THE PACIFIC TRAJECTORIES WILL LEAD TO
   MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. GIVEN CURED FUELS ACROSS ERN
   NM/CO AND WRN/CNTRL OK...THE EVENT WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
   CLOSELY. 
   
   THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
   REGION...MITIGATING FIRE CONCERNS.
   
   ...LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS...
   D4/THU...POST-FRONTAL WLYS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 20 TO 30
   MPH...WITH VERY STRONG GUSTS DEVELOPING AS AT LEAST SHALLOW
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING OCCURS AMIDST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING...THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL LIKELY YIELD
   BRIEF DURATIONS OF MID-TEEN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. PER
   COORDINATION WITH REV...FUELS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS REMAIN DRY. AS
   SUCH...DESPITE THE COOL TEMPERATURES...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WINDS MAY
   SUPPORT A BRIEF THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN FIRES.
   
   ...GULF STATES...
   A NOR'EASTER IS PROJECTED TO PROGRESS UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
   THE WEEKEND...WITH A COOL AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS ADVECTING
   INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. SEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY
   NWLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST FOR D3/WED. ALTHOUGH
   SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO NLY THEN ELY AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI/D5 AS
   A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE EAST...DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL
   LIKELY LINGER ACROSS INTERIOR N FL...SUPPORTING A MARGINAL FIRE
   THREAT.
   
   ..DISPIGNA.. 11/05/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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