Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Wed, Nov 07, 2012 - Thu, Nov 08, 2012 | D6 | Sat, Nov 10, 2012 - Sun, Nov 11, 2012 |
| D4 | Thu, Nov 08, 2012 - Fri, Nov 09, 2012 | D7 | Sun, Nov 11, 2012 - Mon, Nov 12, 2012 |
| D5 | Fri, Nov 09, 2012 - Sat, Nov 10, 2012 | D8 | Mon, Nov 12, 2012 - Tue, Nov 13, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 052146 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012 VALID 071200Z - 131200Z ...SOUTHWEST AND CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... ...INCREASING THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN FIRES BY MID-LATE WEEK... A STRONG WRN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND QUICKLY PROGRESS EWD IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT THE WEST. BY D3/WED...MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SWD OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...INDUCING A BROAD LEE SURFACE TROUGH. IN RESPONSE...DOWNSLOPE WLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN WY...WHILE A SUBTLE STRENGTHENING OF SLY WINDS OCCURS OVER ERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. BY D4/THU...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY DRIER AREA WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS N CNTRL TX INTO S CNTRL OK WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES/DURATION WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ON D5/6 FRI/SAT...BUT A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE DUE TO THE PACIFIC TRAJECTORIES WILL LEAD TO MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. GIVEN CURED FUELS ACROSS ERN NM/CO AND WRN/CNTRL OK...THE EVENT WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION...MITIGATING FIRE CONCERNS. ...LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS... D4/THU...POST-FRONTAL WLYS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH VERY STRONG GUSTS DEVELOPING AS AT LEAST SHALLOW BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING OCCURS AMIDST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING...THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL LIKELY YIELD BRIEF DURATIONS OF MID-TEEN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. PER COORDINATION WITH REV...FUELS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS REMAIN DRY. AS SUCH...DESPITE THE COOL TEMPERATURES...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WINDS MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN FIRES. ...GULF STATES... A NOR'EASTER IS PROJECTED TO PROGRESS UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A COOL AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. SEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST FOR D3/WED. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO NLY THEN ELY AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI/D5 AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE EAST...DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS INTERIOR N FL...SUPPORTING A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT. ..DISPIGNA.. 11/05/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT