Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Thu, Nov 08, 2012 - Fri, Nov 09, 2012 | D6 | Sun, Nov 11, 2012 - Mon, Nov 12, 2012 |
| D4 | Fri, Nov 09, 2012 - Sat, Nov 10, 2012 | D7 | Mon, Nov 12, 2012 - Tue, Nov 13, 2012 |
| D5 | Sat, Nov 10, 2012 - Sun, Nov 11, 2012 | D8 | Tue, Nov 13, 2012 - Wed, Nov 14, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 062133
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CST TUE NOV 06 2012
VALID 081200Z - 141200Z
...SOUTHWEST AND CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
...INCREASING THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN FIRES BY MID-LATE WEEK...
D3/THU-D5/SAT...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. THE DRIEST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR D3/THU ACROSS LEE
AREAS OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. GUSTY SLY WINDS WILL ALSO ALIGN WITH
MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE SRN PLAINS. BY
D4/FRI...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...LEADING TO MARGINAL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. GIVEN A BROAD AREA OF DORMANT
GRASSES...THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL OF
RAPID FIRE-SPREAD. STRONG WINDS BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS FOR D5/SAT. THE EVENT WILL STILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADES.
THEREAFTER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION...MITIGATING FIRE CONCERNS.
...LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS...
D3/THU...STRONG POST-FRONTAL WLYS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 20
TO 30 MPH WITH VERY STRONG GUSTS DEVELOPING AS AT LEAST SHALLOW
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING OCCURS AMIDST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING...THE DRYING AIR MASS WILL LIKELY YIELD
BRIEF DURATIONS OF MID-TEEN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WINDS MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN
FIRES GIVEN DRY FUELS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.
...FL PANHANDLE...
A COOL AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHEAST
FOLLOWING A NOR'EASTER. SEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NWLY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR D3/THU. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST
TO VEER TO NLY THEN ELY AND WEAKEN THROUGH D4/FRI AS A SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION...THOUGH DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT.
..DISPIGNA.. 11/06/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
$$
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT