Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 6, 2012

Updated: Tue Nov 6 21:35:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 6, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 6, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 6, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 6, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 6, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 6, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 6, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Thu, Nov 08, 2012 - Fri, Nov 09, 2012 D6Sun, Nov 11, 2012 - Mon, Nov 12, 2012
D4Fri, Nov 09, 2012 - Sat, Nov 10, 2012 D7Mon, Nov 12, 2012 - Tue, Nov 13, 2012
D5Sat, Nov 10, 2012 - Sun, Nov 11, 2012 D8Tue, Nov 13, 2012 - Wed, Nov 14, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 062133
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0333 PM CST TUE NOV 06 2012
   
   VALID 081200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...SOUTHWEST AND CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   ...INCREASING THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN FIRES BY MID-LATE WEEK...
   
   D3/THU-D5/SAT...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL. THE DRIEST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR D3/THU ACROSS LEE
   AREAS OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
   PLAINS...THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
   AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. GUSTY SLY WINDS WILL ALSO ALIGN WITH
   MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE SRN PLAINS. BY
   D4/FRI...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT A SUBTLE
   INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...LEADING TO MARGINAL
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. GIVEN A BROAD AREA OF DORMANT
   GRASSES...THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL OF
   RAPID FIRE-SPREAD. STRONG WINDS BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
   CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS FOR D5/SAT. THE EVENT WILL STILL NEED
   TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADES.
   
   THEREAFTER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
   REGION...MITIGATING FIRE CONCERNS.
   
   ...LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS...
   D3/THU...STRONG POST-FRONTAL WLYS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 20
   TO 30 MPH WITH VERY STRONG GUSTS DEVELOPING AS AT LEAST SHALLOW
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING OCCURS AMIDST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING...THE DRYING AIR MASS WILL LIKELY YIELD
   BRIEF DURATIONS OF MID-TEEN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE
   ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WINDS MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN
   FIRES GIVEN DRY FUELS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.
     
   ...FL PANHANDLE...
   A COOL AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHEAST
   FOLLOWING A NOR'EASTER. SEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NWLY
   WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR D3/THU. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST
   TO VEER TO NLY THEN ELY AND WEAKEN THROUGH D4/FRI AS A SURFACE HIGH
   SETTLES OVER THE REGION...THOUGH DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
   LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT.
   
   ..DISPIGNA.. 11/06/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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