Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 7, 2012

Updated: Wed Nov 7 20:25:02 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 7, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 7, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 7, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 7, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 7, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 7, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 7, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Fri, Nov 09, 2012 - Sat, Nov 10, 2012 D6Mon, Nov 12, 2012 - Tue, Nov 13, 2012
D4Sat, Nov 10, 2012 - Sun, Nov 11, 2012 D7Tue, Nov 13, 2012 - Wed, Nov 14, 2012
D5Sun, Nov 11, 2012 - Mon, Nov 12, 2012 D8Wed, Nov 14, 2012 - Thu, Nov 15, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 072023
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CST WED NOV 07 2012
   
   VALID 091200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...INCREASING FIRE THREAT EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
   PLAINS FRI-SAT...
   
   A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS IS LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   PLAINS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A HEIGHTENED THREAT OF FIRE SPREAD AS A
   POWERFUL WRN TROUGH LEADS TO STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WINDS ACROSS
   THE REGION. THE DRIEST CONDITIONS BUT LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
   THE D1/D2 WED/THU PERIODS...WHILE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN PACIFIC
   MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY D3/4 FRI/SAT. AS SUCH...A MISALIGNMENT OF
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. DESPITE MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
   VALUES FOR D3/4 FRI/SAT...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS
   OF 20 TO 30 MPH /WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ ENHANCING THE THREAT OF FIRE
   SPREAD WHERE GRASSES HAVE BECOME DORMANT. ERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
   HEIGHTENED FIRE THREAT MAY ALSO VARY SLIGHTLY...DEPENDING ON THE
   PRECISE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE...AND MAY BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
   BY D4/SUN...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE
   REGION...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES LIMITING THE FIRE THREAT.
   
   ...FL...
   A POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL LINGER ACROSS FL...WITH SEASONABLY LOW
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...AND LOWER
   30S OVER INTERIOR N FL. GUSTY ELY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE THE FIRE
   THREAT.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST A RETURN TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY NEXT
   WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
   SLATED TO PROGRESS INTO SRN CA BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH SOLUTIONS VARY
   WITH THE PLACEMENT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY LOW-MID
   LEVEL ENHANCEMENT TO OFFSHORE WIND SPEEDS.
   
   ..DISPIGNA.. 11/07/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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