Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 8, 2012

Updated: Thu Nov 8 21:09:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sat, Nov 10, 2012 - Sun, Nov 11, 2012 D6Tue, Nov 13, 2012 - Wed, Nov 14, 2012
D4Sun, Nov 11, 2012 - Mon, Nov 12, 2012 D7Wed, Nov 14, 2012 - Thu, Nov 15, 2012
D5Mon, Nov 12, 2012 - Tue, Nov 13, 2012 D8Thu, Nov 15, 2012 - Fri, Nov 16, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 082108
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 PM CST THU NOV 08 2012
   
   VALID 101200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN FIRES PERSISTING SAT/D3 ACROSS ERN
   NM/CO...WRN KS...THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND WRN TX...
   
   STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE
   CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES FOR SAT/D3 AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
   TRAVERSES THROUGH THE WEST. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL...PRECLUDING A CRITICAL
   ISSUANCE...THOUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LOWER
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS MAY NECESSITATE AN UPGRADE.
   
   THEREAFTER...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE
   AREA...MITIGATING FIRE CONCERNS.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   A RETURN TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
   SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS
   SUGGEST A WEAK EVENT...WITH LITTLE LOW-MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT TO
   OFFSHORE WIND SPEEDS. AS SUCH...NO HIGHLIGHTS APPEAR WARRANTED AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   ..DISPIGNA.. 11/08/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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