Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Sun, Nov 11, 2012 - Mon, Nov 12, 2012 | D6 | Wed, Nov 14, 2012 - Thu, Nov 15, 2012 |
| D4 | Mon, Nov 12, 2012 - Tue, Nov 13, 2012 | D7 | Thu, Nov 15, 2012 - Fri, Nov 16, 2012 |
| D5 | Tue, Nov 13, 2012 - Wed, Nov 14, 2012 | D8 | Fri, Nov 16, 2012 - Sat, Nov 17, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 092039 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CST FRI NOV 09 2012 VALID 111200Z - 171200Z A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL TRACK EWD/NEWD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE DEAMPLIFYING. DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS ON D3/SUN. THEREAFTER...A LOW-AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE UNLIKELY. FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE CA COAST BEFORE TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. WHILE MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE THAT MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG-WIND THREAT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON D8/FRI...INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS OFFER VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES IN COMBINATION WITH THESE WINDS. ...PORTIONS OF WRN TX...SERN/E-CNTRL NM...FAR SWRN OK -- D3/SUN... ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WLY/WNWLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AS DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S...AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN SOME AREAS. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR RH VALUES TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...AND A MARGINAL AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS IS TOO LOW FOR CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...ANY AREAS OF FRONT-RELATED PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING/DRYING MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA -- D4/MON... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE SW OF A CNTRL GREAT BASIN ANTICYCLONE MAY SUPPORT ENHANCED NELY TO ELY SFC WINDS. DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WOULD YIELD LOW RH VALUES TO MODESTLY ELEVATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ABSENCE OF A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS. AS SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS ARE NOT BEING INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. ..COHEN.. 11/09/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT