Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 9, 2012

Updated: Fri Nov 9 20:40:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 9, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 9, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 9, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 9, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 9, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 9, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 9, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sun, Nov 11, 2012 - Mon, Nov 12, 2012 D6Wed, Nov 14, 2012 - Thu, Nov 15, 2012
D4Mon, Nov 12, 2012 - Tue, Nov 13, 2012 D7Thu, Nov 15, 2012 - Fri, Nov 16, 2012
D5Tue, Nov 13, 2012 - Wed, Nov 14, 2012 D8Fri, Nov 16, 2012 - Sat, Nov 17, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 092039
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 PM CST FRI NOV 09 2012
   
   VALID 111200Z - 171200Z
   
   A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS LATE THIS
   WEEKEND WILL TRACK EWD/NEWD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE
   DEAMPLIFYING. DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL
   ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS ON
   D3/SUN. THEREAFTER...A LOW-AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
   EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE UNLIKELY. FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...MODEL
   SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ONSHORE
   OVER THE CA COAST BEFORE TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. WHILE
   MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE
   THAT MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG-WIND THREAT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
   D8/FRI...INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS OFFER VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES IN COMBINATION WITH THESE
   WINDS.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF WRN TX...SERN/E-CNTRL NM...FAR SWRN OK -- D3/SUN...
   ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
   STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WLY/WNWLY WINDS OF 
   15-25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AS
   DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
   TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S...AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE
   EFFECTS IN SOME AREAS. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR RH VALUES TO
   REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...AND A MARGINAL AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR
   MASS...CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES OCCURRING ON ANY MORE
   THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS IS TOO LOW FOR CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT
   THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...ANY AREAS OF FRONT-RELATED PRECIPITATION
   PRIOR TO BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING/DRYING MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   ...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA -- D4/MON...
   THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE SW OF A CNTRL GREAT BASIN
   ANTICYCLONE MAY SUPPORT ENHANCED NELY TO ELY SFC WINDS. DOWNSLOPE
   EFFECTS WOULD YIELD LOW RH VALUES TO MODESTLY ELEVATE THE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
   THE ABSENCE OF A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGER
   LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICALLY STRONG
   WINDS. AS SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS ARE NOT BEING INCLUDED
   AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..COHEN.. 11/09/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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