Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 10, 2012

Updated: Sat Nov 10 21:28:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 10, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 10, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 10, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 10, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 10, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 10, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 10, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Mon, Nov 12, 2012 - Tue, Nov 13, 2012 D6Thu, Nov 15, 2012 - Fri, Nov 16, 2012
D4Tue, Nov 13, 2012 - Wed, Nov 14, 2012 D7Fri, Nov 16, 2012 - Sat, Nov 17, 2012
D5Wed, Nov 14, 2012 - Thu, Nov 15, 2012 D8Sat, Nov 17, 2012 - Sun, Nov 18, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 102127
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012
   
   VALID 121200Z - 181200Z
   
   A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   CNTRL/ERN CONUS EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THEREAFTER...A
   LOW-AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS
   INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   WILL BE UNLIKELY. FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MODEL
   SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ONSHORE
   OVER THE CA COAST BEFORE TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE SWRN AND S-CNTRL
   CONUS. WHILE MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
   THIS FEATURE THAT MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG-WIND THREAT ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE SRN PLAINS ON D7/FRI AND D8/SAT...INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
   OFFER VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICALLY LOW RH
   VALUES IN COMBINATION WITH THESE WINDS.
   
   ...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA -- D3/MON AND
   D4/TUE...
   THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE SW OF A CNTRL GREAT BASIN SFC RIDGE
   WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED NELY TO ELY WINDS. DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WOULD
   YIELD LOW RH VALUES TO MODESTLY ELEVATE THE FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT...WITH LIMITED OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY MONDAY NIGHT.
   HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ABSENCE OF
   A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVENT
   SFC WINDS FROM BECOMING SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO WARRANT PROBABILISTIC
   DELINEATIONS. FURTHERMORE...AREAS OF LACKING FUEL DRYNESS SHOULD
   MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO SOME EXTENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
   TO DECREASE ON D4/TUE AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
   
   ...FL PANHANDLE...SWRN GA...SRN AL...SRN MS...SRN LA -- D4/TUE...
   THE INFLUX OF A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
   ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY SUPPORT
   AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES AS GENERALLY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
   DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT
   THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
   CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS. FURTHERMORE...FRONT-RELATED
   PRECIPITATION MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO SOME EXTENT.
   AS SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED.
   
   ..COHEN.. 11/10/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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