Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 11, 2012

Updated: Sun Nov 11 21:25:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 11, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 11, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 11, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 11, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 11, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 11, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 11, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Tue, Nov 13, 2012 - Wed, Nov 14, 2012 D6Fri, Nov 16, 2012 - Sat, Nov 17, 2012
D4Wed, Nov 14, 2012 - Thu, Nov 15, 2012 D7Sat, Nov 17, 2012 - Sun, Nov 18, 2012
D5Thu, Nov 15, 2012 - Fri, Nov 16, 2012 D8Sun, Nov 18, 2012 - Mon, Nov 19, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 112124
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012
   
   VALID 131200Z - 191200Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO LOW
   ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE INCLUSION OF ANY PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS
   FROM D3/TUE THROUGH D8/SUN.
   
   FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...A LOW-AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN
   THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE
   PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD
   PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES. THIS MAY YIELD AREAS
   OF RELATIVELY LOW RH VALUES ON D3/TUE FROM SRN LA EWD TO THE FL
   PANHANDLE WHERE GENERALLY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR.
   HOWEVER...CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...AND
   FRONT-RELATED PRECIPITATION MAY MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...DRY
   CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO D3/TUE...THOUGH DECREASING WIND SPEEDS
   SHOULD OFFSET ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS FOR D3/TUE AND D4/WED...THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SFC TROUGH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE SLY/SSWLY FLOW
   WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS WILL
   BE UNLIKELY...AND COOL SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.
   
   FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A
   SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE CA COAST BEFORE
   TRACKING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
   POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND WRN CONUS LATE NEXT
   WEEKEND. WHILE SOME STRONG-WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SRN PLAINS FOR D6/FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...INDIVIDUAL MODEL
   SOLUTIONS OFFER VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES IN COMBINATION WITH THESE WINDS.
   
   ..COHEN.. 11/11/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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