Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 12, 2012

Updated: Mon Nov 12 20:52:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 12, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 12, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 12, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 12, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 12, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 12, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 12, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Wed, Nov 14, 2012 - Thu, Nov 15, 2012 D6Sat, Nov 17, 2012 - Sun, Nov 18, 2012
D4Thu, Nov 15, 2012 - Fri, Nov 16, 2012 D7Sun, Nov 18, 2012 - Mon, Nov 19, 2012
D5Fri, Nov 16, 2012 - Sat, Nov 17, 2012 D8Mon, Nov 19, 2012 - Tue, Nov 20, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 122050
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CST MON NOV 12 2012
   
   VALID 141200Z - 201200Z
   
   FOR D3/WED THROUGH D7/SUN...THE SPECTRUM OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE
   MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO LOW FOR ANY PROBABILISTIC
   DELINEATIONS. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND
   LOW-AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE MID/UPPER
   LEVELS...BEFORE SOMEWHAT MORE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE
   ERN CONUS FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
   THAT A MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM COULD ENSUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SWRN/S-CNTRL CONUS FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
   SUPPORT AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS ON D8/MON. HOWEVER...LARGE DISPERSION AMONGST INDIVIDUAL
   MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS THREAT PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF
   ANY PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..COHEN.. 11/12/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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