Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 13, 2012

Updated: Tue Nov 13 21:33:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 13, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 13, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 13, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 13, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 13, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 13, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 13, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Thu, Nov 15, 2012 - Fri, Nov 16, 2012 D6Sun, Nov 18, 2012 - Mon, Nov 19, 2012
D4Fri, Nov 16, 2012 - Sat, Nov 17, 2012 D7Mon, Nov 19, 2012 - Tue, Nov 20, 2012
D5Sat, Nov 17, 2012 - Sun, Nov 18, 2012 D8Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - Wed, Nov 21, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132131
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0331 PM CST TUE NOV 13 2012
   
   VALID 151200Z - 211200Z
   
   FOR D3/THU THROUGH D6/SUN...THE SPECTRUM OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE
   MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO LOW FOR ANY PROBABILISTIC
   DELINEATIONS. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE AND
   LOW-AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITHIN
   A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME. A SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON D3/THU AND MAY BE FOLLOWED BY
   MODERATE TO MARGINALLY/LOCALLY STRONG NLY/NELY WINDS...THOUGH COLD
   ADVECTION AND INCREASING RH VALUES FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
   MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT A MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM COULD
   EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN/S-CNTRL CONUS FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
   NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NRN STREAM AMPLIFYING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY
   DOMINANT AT THE SAME TIME. THIS COULD SUPPORT AN ENHANCED FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES ON
   D7/MON AND D8/TUE. HOWEVER...LARGE DISPERSION AMONGST INDIVIDUAL
   MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS THREAT PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF
   ANY PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..COHEN.. 11/13/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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