Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 14, 2012

Updated: Wed Nov 14 20:55:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 14, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 14, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 14, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 14, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 14, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 14, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 14, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Fri, Nov 16, 2012 - Sat, Nov 17, 2012 D6Mon, Nov 19, 2012 - Tue, Nov 20, 2012
D4Sat, Nov 17, 2012 - Sun, Nov 18, 2012 D7Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - Wed, Nov 21, 2012
D5Sun, Nov 18, 2012 - Mon, Nov 19, 2012 D8Wed, Nov 21, 2012 - Thu, Nov 22, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142053
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CST WED NOV 14 2012
   
   VALID 161200Z - 221200Z
   
   FOR D3/FRI THROUGH D5/SUN...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL
   SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO LOW FOR ANY PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS.
   DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
   PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITHIN A SPLIT-FLOW
   REGIME. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A RELATIVELY MORE ACTIVE SRN
   STREAM MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN/S-CNTRL CONUS FOR THIS
   WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE NRN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND
   BECOMES INCREASINGLY DOMINANT. THIS MAY YIELD AN ENHANCED FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL/SRN
   ROCKIES FROM D6/MON THROUGH D8/WED. HOWEVER...LARGE DISPERSION
   AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS THREAT PRECLUDES
   THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..COHEN.. 11/14/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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