Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Fri, Nov 16, 2012 - Sat, Nov 17, 2012 | D6 | Mon, Nov 19, 2012 - Tue, Nov 20, 2012 |
| D4 | Sat, Nov 17, 2012 - Sun, Nov 18, 2012 | D7 | Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - Wed, Nov 21, 2012 |
| D5 | Sun, Nov 18, 2012 - Mon, Nov 19, 2012 | D8 | Wed, Nov 21, 2012 - Thu, Nov 22, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 142053 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CST WED NOV 14 2012 VALID 161200Z - 221200Z FOR D3/FRI THROUGH D5/SUN...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO LOW FOR ANY PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE AND LOW-AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITHIN A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A RELATIVELY MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN/S-CNTRL CONUS FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE NRN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY DOMINANT. THIS MAY YIELD AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES FROM D6/MON THROUGH D8/WED. HOWEVER...LARGE DISPERSION AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS THREAT PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS AT THIS TIME. ..COHEN.. 11/14/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT